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Title: Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States

Abstract

This report is the second in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications, a multi-year research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. The report presents scenarios of electric end-use technology adoption and resulting electricity consumption in the United States. The scenarios are used to characterize changes to end-use sectors under futures with increased electrification and to quantify how those changes might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption. These scenarios were developed primarily using expert judgment and an energy system accounting framework. Of course, technology adoption will ultimately depend on a set of complex considerations that are not fully assessed using our methodology, but which are discussed extensively throughout the report. These interacting factors include technology and fuel cost trade-offs, infrastructure needs, environmental policies, and consumer preference. Within each of these factors are barriers that might challenge increased electrification - such as higher upfront costs or unfamiliarity with new electric technologies - but also opportunities that could yield greater adoption - such as increased productivity or expanded value streams enabled by electric and/or grid-connected technologies. Understanding and quantifying these factors are needed to both evaluate the implications of a potentialmore » increased electrification future and to influence the degree of future electrification. Overall, the report represents an initial step to inform researchers and decision-makers with data and context to plan for a potential future in which electricity powers an expanded share of the U.S. energy economy.This report is the second in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications, a multi-year research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. The report presents scenarios of electric end-use technology adoption in all major sectors - transportation, commercial and residential buildings, and industry - and resulting electricity consumption in the United States. The scenarios are used to characterize changes to end-use sectors under futures with increased electrification and to quantify how those changes might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption. These scenarios were developed primarily using expert judgment and an energy system accounting framework. Of course, technology adoption will ultimately depend on a set of complex considerations that are not fully assessed using our methodology, but which are discussed extensively throughout the report. These interacting factors include technology and fuel cost trade-offs, infrastructure needs, environmental policies, and consumer preference. Within each of these factors are barriers that might challenge increased electrification - such as higher upfront costs or unfamiliarity with new electric technologies - but also opportunities that could yield greater adoption, such as increased productivity or expanded value streams enabled by electric and grid-connected technologies. Understanding and quantifying these factors are needed to both evaluate the implications of a potential increased electrification future and to influence the degree of future electrification. Overall, the report represents an initial step to inform researchers and decision-makers with data and context to plan for a potential future in which electricity powers an expanded share of the U.S. energy economy.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Evolved Energy Research, San Francisco, CA (United States)
  3. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Programs (EE-SP)
OSTI Identifier:
1459351
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-71500
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION; electrification; United States; 2050; EFS; scenarios; end-use technologies; electric vehicles; heat pumps; electrotechnologies; energy transitions

Citation Formats

Mai, Trieu T., Jadun, Paige, Logan, Jeffrey S., McMillan, Colin A., Muratori, Matteo, Steinberg, Daniel C., Vimmerstedt, Laura J., Haley, Benjamin, Jones, Ryan, and Nelson, Brent. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1459351.
Mai, Trieu T., Jadun, Paige, Logan, Jeffrey S., McMillan, Colin A., Muratori, Matteo, Steinberg, Daniel C., Vimmerstedt, Laura J., Haley, Benjamin, Jones, Ryan, & Nelson, Brent. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. United States. doi:10.2172/1459351.
Mai, Trieu T., Jadun, Paige, Logan, Jeffrey S., McMillan, Colin A., Muratori, Matteo, Steinberg, Daniel C., Vimmerstedt, Laura J., Haley, Benjamin, Jones, Ryan, and Nelson, Brent. Fri . "Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States". United States. doi:10.2172/1459351. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1459351.
@article{osti_1459351,
title = {Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States},
author = {Mai, Trieu T. and Jadun, Paige and Logan, Jeffrey S. and McMillan, Colin A. and Muratori, Matteo and Steinberg, Daniel C. and Vimmerstedt, Laura J. and Haley, Benjamin and Jones, Ryan and Nelson, Brent},
abstractNote = {This report is the second in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications, a multi-year research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. The report presents scenarios of electric end-use technology adoption and resulting electricity consumption in the United States. The scenarios are used to characterize changes to end-use sectors under futures with increased electrification and to quantify how those changes might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption. These scenarios were developed primarily using expert judgment and an energy system accounting framework. Of course, technology adoption will ultimately depend on a set of complex considerations that are not fully assessed using our methodology, but which are discussed extensively throughout the report. These interacting factors include technology and fuel cost trade-offs, infrastructure needs, environmental policies, and consumer preference. Within each of these factors are barriers that might challenge increased electrification - such as higher upfront costs or unfamiliarity with new electric technologies - but also opportunities that could yield greater adoption - such as increased productivity or expanded value streams enabled by electric and/or grid-connected technologies. Understanding and quantifying these factors are needed to both evaluate the implications of a potential increased electrification future and to influence the degree of future electrification. Overall, the report represents an initial step to inform researchers and decision-makers with data and context to plan for a potential future in which electricity powers an expanded share of the U.S. energy economy.This report is the second in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications, a multi-year research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. The report presents scenarios of electric end-use technology adoption in all major sectors - transportation, commercial and residential buildings, and industry - and resulting electricity consumption in the United States. The scenarios are used to characterize changes to end-use sectors under futures with increased electrification and to quantify how those changes might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption. These scenarios were developed primarily using expert judgment and an energy system accounting framework. Of course, technology adoption will ultimately depend on a set of complex considerations that are not fully assessed using our methodology, but which are discussed extensively throughout the report. These interacting factors include technology and fuel cost trade-offs, infrastructure needs, environmental policies, and consumer preference. Within each of these factors are barriers that might challenge increased electrification - such as higher upfront costs or unfamiliarity with new electric technologies - but also opportunities that could yield greater adoption, such as increased productivity or expanded value streams enabled by electric and grid-connected technologies. Understanding and quantifying these factors are needed to both evaluate the implications of a potential increased electrification future and to influence the degree of future electrification. Overall, the report represents an initial step to inform researchers and decision-makers with data and context to plan for a potential future in which electricity powers an expanded share of the U.S. energy economy.},
doi = {10.2172/1459351},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jun 29 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Jun 29 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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