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Title: Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility

Abstract

Although Florida has very little photovoltaic (PV) generation to date, it is reasonable to expect significant deployment in the 2020s under a variety of future policy and cost scenarios. To understand these potential futures, we model Florida Reliability Coordinating Council operations in 2026 over a wide range of PV penetrations with various combinations of battery storage capacity, demand response, and increased operational flexibility. By calculating the value of PV under a wide range of conditions, we find that at least 5%, and more likely 10-24%, PV penetration is cost competitive in Florida within the next decade with baseline flexibility and all but the most pessimistic of assumptions. For high PV penetrations, we demonstrate Florida's electrical net-load variability (duck curve) challenges, the associated reduction of PV's value to the system, and the ability of flexibility options-in particular energy-shifting resources-to preserve value and increase the economic carrying capacity of PV. A high level of demand response boosts the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 0.5-2 percentage points, which is comparable to the impact of deploying 1 GW of battery storage. Adding 4 GW of battery storage expands the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 6 percentage points.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Priorities and Impact Analysis Office (EE-61)
OSTI Identifier:
1457670
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-71506
Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Solar Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 170; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; renewable energy integration; solar photovoltaics; battery energy storage; demand response; operational flexibility

Citation Formats

Hale, Elaine T., Stoll, Brady L., and Novacheck, Joshua E.. Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.05.045.
Hale, Elaine T., Stoll, Brady L., & Novacheck, Joshua E.. Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility. United States. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.05.045.
Hale, Elaine T., Stoll, Brady L., and Novacheck, Joshua E.. Fri . "Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility". United States. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.05.045.
@article{osti_1457670,
title = {Integrating solar into Florida's power system: Potential roles for flexibility},
author = {Hale, Elaine T. and Stoll, Brady L. and Novacheck, Joshua E.},
abstractNote = {Although Florida has very little photovoltaic (PV) generation to date, it is reasonable to expect significant deployment in the 2020s under a variety of future policy and cost scenarios. To understand these potential futures, we model Florida Reliability Coordinating Council operations in 2026 over a wide range of PV penetrations with various combinations of battery storage capacity, demand response, and increased operational flexibility. By calculating the value of PV under a wide range of conditions, we find that at least 5%, and more likely 10-24%, PV penetration is cost competitive in Florida within the next decade with baseline flexibility and all but the most pessimistic of assumptions. For high PV penetrations, we demonstrate Florida's electrical net-load variability (duck curve) challenges, the associated reduction of PV's value to the system, and the ability of flexibility options-in particular energy-shifting resources-to preserve value and increase the economic carrying capacity of PV. A high level of demand response boosts the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 0.5-2 percentage points, which is comparable to the impact of deploying 1 GW of battery storage. Adding 4 GW of battery storage expands the economic carrying capacity of PV by up to 6 percentage points.},
doi = {10.1016/j.solener.2018.05.045},
journal = {Solar Energy},
number = C,
volume = 170,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jun 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Jun 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
This content will become publicly available on June 22, 2019
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