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Title: Global ice sheet modeling

Abstract

The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

Authors:
;  [1]
  1. Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
145218
Report Number(s):
PNL-9414
ON: DE94013744; TRN: 94:012255
DOE Contract Number:
AC06-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: May 1994
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
05 NUCLEAR FUELS; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 99 MATHEMATICS, COMPUTERS, INFORMATION SCIENCE, MANAGEMENT, LAW, MISCELLANEOUS; YUCCA MOUNTAIN; SITE CHARACTERIZATION; GLACIERS; DYNAMICS; STRUCTURAL MODELS; CLIMATIC CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS; RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL; CLIMATE MODELS; Yucca Mountain Project

Citation Formats

Hughes, T.J., and Fastook, J.L. Global ice sheet modeling. United States: N. p., 1994. Web. doi:10.2172/145218.
Hughes, T.J., & Fastook, J.L. Global ice sheet modeling. United States. doi:10.2172/145218.
Hughes, T.J., and Fastook, J.L. Sun . "Global ice sheet modeling". United States. doi:10.2172/145218. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/145218.
@article{osti_145218,
title = {Global ice sheet modeling},
author = {Hughes, T.J. and Fastook, J.L.},
abstractNote = {The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.},
doi = {10.2172/145218},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1994},
month = {Sun May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1994}
}

Technical Report:

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  • This report summarizes our work to develop advanced forward and inverse solvers and uncertainty quantification capabilities for a nonlinear 3D full Stokes continental-scale ice sheet flow model. The components include: (1) forward solver: a new state-of-the-art parallel adaptive scalable high-order-accurate mass-conservative Newton-based 3D nonlinear full Stokes ice sheet flow simulator; (2) inverse solver: a new adjoint-based inexact Newton method for solution of deterministic inverse problems governed by the above 3D nonlinear full Stokes ice flow model; and (3) uncertainty quantification: a novel Hessian-based Bayesian method for quantifying uncertainties in the inverse ice sheet flow solution and propagating them forward intomore » predictions of quantities of interest such as ice mass flux to the ocean.« less
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  • Mean changes in the surface elevation near the west margin of the Greenland ice sheet are measured using Seasat altimetry and altimetry from the Geosat Exact Repeat Mission (ERM). The Seasat data extend from early July through early October 1978. The ERM data extend from winter 1986-87 through fall 1988. Both seasonal and multi-year changes are measured using altimetry referenced to GEM T2 orbits. The possible effects of orbit error are minimized by adjusting the orbits into a common ocean surface. Seasonal mean changes in the surface height are recognizable during the Geosat ERM. The multi-year measurements indicate the surfacemore » was lower by 0.4 +/- 0.4 m on average in late summer 1987 than in late summer 1978. The surface was lower by 0.2 +/- 0.5 m on average in late summer 1988 than in late summer 1978. As a control case, the computations are also carried out using altimetry referenced to orbits not adjusted into a common ocean surface.« less
  • The project performed under this award, referred to from here on as CLARION (CoupLed simulations of Antarctic Ice-sheet/Ocean iNteractions), included important advances in two models of ice sheet and ocean interactions. Despite its short duration (one year), the project made significant progress on its three major foci. First, together with collaborator Daniel Martin at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), I developed the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model to the point where it could perform a number of pan-Antarctic simulations under various forcing conditions. The results were presented at a number of major conferences and workshops worldwide, and are currently beingmore » incorporated into two manuscripts in preparation.« less