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Title: A Solar Time-based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting

Abstract

This paper presents a new analog ensemble method for day-ahead regional photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with hourly resolution. By utilizing open weather forecast and power measurement data, this prediction method is processed within a set of historical data with similar meteorological data (temperature and irradiance), and astronomical date (solar time and earth declination angle). Further, clustering and blending strategies are applied to improve its accuracy in regional PV forecasting. The robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated with three different numerical weather prediction models, the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, the Global Forecast System, and the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast, for both region level and single site level PV forecasts. Using real measured data, the new forecasting approach is applied to the load zone in Southeastern Massachusetts as a case study. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) has been reduced by 13.80%-61.21% when compared with three tested baselines.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1439549
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5D00-71656
Journal ID: ISSN 1949-3029
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; solar power forecasting; photovoltaic systems; analog; ensemble; modeling

Citation Formats

Zhang, Xinmin, Li, Yuan, Lu, Siyuan, Hamann, Hendrik, Hodge, Bri-Mathias Scott, and Lehman, Brad. A Solar Time-based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1109/TSTE.2018.2832634.
Zhang, Xinmin, Li, Yuan, Lu, Siyuan, Hamann, Hendrik, Hodge, Bri-Mathias Scott, & Lehman, Brad. A Solar Time-based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting. United States. doi:10.1109/TSTE.2018.2832634.
Zhang, Xinmin, Li, Yuan, Lu, Siyuan, Hamann, Hendrik, Hodge, Bri-Mathias Scott, and Lehman, Brad. Mon . "A Solar Time-based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting". United States. doi:10.1109/TSTE.2018.2832634.
@article{osti_1439549,
title = {A Solar Time-based Analog Ensemble Method for Regional Solar Power Forecasting},
author = {Zhang, Xinmin and Li, Yuan and Lu, Siyuan and Hamann, Hendrik and Hodge, Bri-Mathias Scott and Lehman, Brad},
abstractNote = {This paper presents a new analog ensemble method for day-ahead regional photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with hourly resolution. By utilizing open weather forecast and power measurement data, this prediction method is processed within a set of historical data with similar meteorological data (temperature and irradiance), and astronomical date (solar time and earth declination angle). Further, clustering and blending strategies are applied to improve its accuracy in regional PV forecasting. The robustness of the proposed method is demonstrated with three different numerical weather prediction models, the North American Mesoscale Forecast System, the Global Forecast System, and the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast, for both region level and single site level PV forecasts. Using real measured data, the new forecasting approach is applied to the load zone in Southeastern Massachusetts as a case study. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) has been reduced by 13.80%-61.21% when compared with three tested baselines.},
doi = {10.1109/TSTE.2018.2832634},
journal = {IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}