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Title: Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains

Abstract

The Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project is aimed at gaining a better understanding of the physical processes that are leading to the creation of warm screen-temperature biases over the American Midwest, which are seen in many numerical models. Here in Part 1, a series of 5-day hindcasts, each initialised from re-analyses and performed by 11 different models, are evaluated against screen-temperature observations. All the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Several ways of quantifying the impact of the initial conditions on the evolution of the simulations are presented, showing that within a day or so all models have produced a warm bias that is representative of their bias after 5 days, and not closely tied to the conditions at the initial time. Although the surface temperature biases sometimes coincide with locations where the re-analyses themselves have a bias, there are many regions in each of the models where biases grow over the course of 5 days or are larger than the biases present in the reanalyses. At the Southern Great Plains site, the model biases are shown to not be confined to the surface, but extend several kilometres intomore » the atmosphere. In most of the models, there is a strong diurnal cycle in the screen-temperature bias and in some models the biases are largest around midday, while in the others it is largest during the night. While the different physical processes that are contributing to a given model having a screen-temperature error will be discussed in more detail in the companion papers (Parts 2 and 3) the fact that there is a spatial coherence in the phase of the diurnal cycle of the error across wide regions and that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP suggest that the detailed evaluations of the role of different processes in contributing to errors at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a much larger spatial scale.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [5];  [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [2] more »; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1] « less
  1. Met Office, Exeter UK
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA USA
  3. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading UK
  4. CNRM, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse France
  5. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA
  6. NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton VA USA
  7. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris France
  8. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria British Columbia Canada
  9. Academia Sinica, Taipei Taiwan
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1439007
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-126058
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X; KP1701000
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres; Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 5
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Morcrette, C. J., Van Weverberg, K., Ma, H. -Y., Ahlgrimm, M., Bazile, E., Berg, L. K., Cheng, A., Cheruy, F., Cole, J., Forbes, R., Gustafson, W. I., Huang, M., Lee, W. -S., Liu, Y., Mellul, L., Merryfield, W. J., Qian, Y., Roehrig, R., Wang, Y. -C., Xie, S., Xu, K. -M., Zhang, C., Klein, S., and Petch, J.. Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017JD027199.
Morcrette, C. J., Van Weverberg, K., Ma, H. -Y., Ahlgrimm, M., Bazile, E., Berg, L. K., Cheng, A., Cheruy, F., Cole, J., Forbes, R., Gustafson, W. I., Huang, M., Lee, W. -S., Liu, Y., Mellul, L., Merryfield, W. J., Qian, Y., Roehrig, R., Wang, Y. -C., Xie, S., Xu, K. -M., Zhang, C., Klein, S., & Petch, J.. Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains. United States. doi:10.1002/2017JD027199.
Morcrette, C. J., Van Weverberg, K., Ma, H. -Y., Ahlgrimm, M., Bazile, E., Berg, L. K., Cheng, A., Cheruy, F., Cole, J., Forbes, R., Gustafson, W. I., Huang, M., Lee, W. -S., Liu, Y., Mellul, L., Merryfield, W. J., Qian, Y., Roehrig, R., Wang, Y. -C., Xie, S., Xu, K. -M., Zhang, C., Klein, S., and Petch, J.. Mon . "Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains". United States. doi:10.1002/2017JD027199.
@article{osti_1439007,
title = {Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near-Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains},
author = {Morcrette, C. J. and Van Weverberg, K. and Ma, H. -Y. and Ahlgrimm, M. and Bazile, E. and Berg, L. K. and Cheng, A. and Cheruy, F. and Cole, J. and Forbes, R. and Gustafson, W. I. and Huang, M. and Lee, W. -S. and Liu, Y. and Mellul, L. and Merryfield, W. J. and Qian, Y. and Roehrig, R. and Wang, Y. -C. and Xie, S. and Xu, K. -M. and Zhang, C. and Klein, S. and Petch, J.},
abstractNote = {The Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface (CAUSES) project is aimed at gaining a better understanding of the physical processes that are leading to the creation of warm screen-temperature biases over the American Midwest, which are seen in many numerical models. Here in Part 1, a series of 5-day hindcasts, each initialised from re-analyses and performed by 11 different models, are evaluated against screen-temperature observations. All the models have a warm bias over parts of the Midwest. Several ways of quantifying the impact of the initial conditions on the evolution of the simulations are presented, showing that within a day or so all models have produced a warm bias that is representative of their bias after 5 days, and not closely tied to the conditions at the initial time. Although the surface temperature biases sometimes coincide with locations where the re-analyses themselves have a bias, there are many regions in each of the models where biases grow over the course of 5 days or are larger than the biases present in the reanalyses. At the Southern Great Plains site, the model biases are shown to not be confined to the surface, but extend several kilometres into the atmosphere. In most of the models, there is a strong diurnal cycle in the screen-temperature bias and in some models the biases are largest around midday, while in the others it is largest during the night. While the different physical processes that are contributing to a given model having a screen-temperature error will be discussed in more detail in the companion papers (Parts 2 and 3) the fact that there is a spatial coherence in the phase of the diurnal cycle of the error across wide regions and that there are numerous locations across the Midwest where the diurnal cycle of the error is highly correlated with the diurnal cycle of the error at SGP suggest that the detailed evaluations of the role of different processes in contributing to errors at SGP will be representative of errors that are prevalent over a much larger spatial scale.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027199},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 5,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon Mar 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}