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Title: Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

Abstract

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. Harvard-NUIST Joint Laboratory for Air Quality and Climate, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China
  2. Harvard-NUIST Joint Laboratory for Air Quality and Climate, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China
  3. Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMSST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao China; Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart Tasmania Australia
  4. Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1438999
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-132701
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; KP1703010
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters; Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 4
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
haze; anthropogenic activities

Citation Formats

Li, Ke, Liao, Hong, Cai, Wenju, and Yang, Yang. Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017GL076570.
Li, Ke, Liao, Hong, Cai, Wenju, & Yang, Yang. Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China. United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL076570.
Li, Ke, Liao, Hong, Cai, Wenju, and Yang, Yang. Fri . "Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China". United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL076570.
@article{osti_1438999,
title = {Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China},
author = {Li, Ke and Liao, Hong and Cai, Wenju and Yang, Yang},
abstractNote = {Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076570},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Feb 23 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Fri Feb 23 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}