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Title: Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010

Abstract

Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive), winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO 2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in themore » south and in autumn in the west. It was also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [2];  [4]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [12];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [16] more »;  [17] « less
  1. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering; Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Inst.
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Inst.
  3. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering
  4. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States). Jackson School of Geosciences
  5. National Center for Meteorological Research (CNRM) Meteo-France/CNRS, Toulouse (France)
  6. Fudan Univ., Shanghai (China). Fudan Tyndall Center and Dept. of Environmental Science and Engineering
  7. Peking Univ., Beijing (China). Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science and College of Urban and Environmental Sciences; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research and CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science
  8. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia and Inst. of Atmospheric Physics (IAP)
  9. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Center for Ecosystem Science and Society
  10. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science and Mathematics Division and Climate Change Science Inst.
  11. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
  12. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan). Center for Global Environmental Research
  13. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Sciences Lab.
  14. Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States). Dept. of Global Ecology
  15. Auburn Univ., AL (United States). International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Science
  16. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
  17. Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). School of Forest Resources
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23). Climate and Environmental Sciences Division; California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1437884
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; NSF-AGS-12-43071
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; US runoff; detection and attribution; MsTMIP

Citation Formats

Forbes, Whitney L., Mao, Jiafu, Jin, Mingzhou, Kao, Shih-Chieh, Fu, Wenting, Shi, Xiaoying, Riccuito, Daniel M., Thornton, Peter E., Ribes, Aurelien, Wang, Yutao, Piao, Shilong, Zhao, Tianbao, Schwalm, Christopher R., Hoffman, Forrest M., Fisher, Joshua B., Ito, Akihiko, Poulter, Ben, Fang, Yuanyuan, Tian, Hanqin, Jain, Atul K., and Hayes, Daniel J. Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabb41.
Forbes, Whitney L., Mao, Jiafu, Jin, Mingzhou, Kao, Shih-Chieh, Fu, Wenting, Shi, Xiaoying, Riccuito, Daniel M., Thornton, Peter E., Ribes, Aurelien, Wang, Yutao, Piao, Shilong, Zhao, Tianbao, Schwalm, Christopher R., Hoffman, Forrest M., Fisher, Joshua B., Ito, Akihiko, Poulter, Ben, Fang, Yuanyuan, Tian, Hanqin, Jain, Atul K., & Hayes, Daniel J. Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabb41.
Forbes, Whitney L., Mao, Jiafu, Jin, Mingzhou, Kao, Shih-Chieh, Fu, Wenting, Shi, Xiaoying, Riccuito, Daniel M., Thornton, Peter E., Ribes, Aurelien, Wang, Yutao, Piao, Shilong, Zhao, Tianbao, Schwalm, Christopher R., Hoffman, Forrest M., Fisher, Joshua B., Ito, Akihiko, Poulter, Ben, Fang, Yuanyuan, Tian, Hanqin, Jain, Atul K., and Hayes, Daniel J. Fri . "Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabb41. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437884.
@article{osti_1437884,
title = {Contribution of environmental forcings to US runoff changes for the period 1950–2010},
author = {Forbes, Whitney L. and Mao, Jiafu and Jin, Mingzhou and Kao, Shih-Chieh and Fu, Wenting and Shi, Xiaoying and Riccuito, Daniel M. and Thornton, Peter E. and Ribes, Aurelien and Wang, Yutao and Piao, Shilong and Zhao, Tianbao and Schwalm, Christopher R. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Fisher, Joshua B. and Ito, Akihiko and Poulter, Ben and Fang, Yuanyuan and Tian, Hanqin and Jain, Atul K. and Hayes, Daniel J.},
abstractNote = {Runoff in the United States is changing, and this study finds that the measured change is dependent on the geographic region and varies seasonally. Specifically, observed annual total runoff had an insignificant increasing trend in the US between 1950 and 2010, but this insignificance was due to regional heterogeneity with both significant and insignificant increases in the eastern, northern, and southern US, and a greater significant decrease in the western US. Trends for seasonal mean runoff also differed across regions. By region, the season with the largest observed trend was autumn for the east (positive), spring for the north (positive), winter for the south (positive), winter for the west (negative), and autumn for the US as a whole (positive). Based on the detection and attribution analysis using gridded WaterWatch runoff observations along with semi-factorial land surface model simulations from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we found that while the roles of CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover were inconsistent regionally and seasonally, the effect of climatic variations was detected for all regions and seasons, and the change in runoff could be attributed to climate change in summer and autumn in the south and in autumn in the west. It was also found that the climate-only and historical transient simulations consistently underestimated the runoff trends, possibly due to precipitation bias in the MsTMIP driver or within the models themselves.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabb41},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 5,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri May 04 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri May 04 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

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