Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003

Title: Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

Abstract

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.

Authors:

Clarke, Leon ^[1]; Eom, Jiyong ^[1]; Marten, Elke Hodson ^[2]; Horowitz, Russell ^[1]; Kyle, Page ^[1]; Link, Robert ^[1]; Mignone, Bryan K. ^[3]; Mundra, Anupriya ^[1]; Zhou, Yuyu ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)
U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Irving, TX (United States)

Publication Date:: 2018-01-06

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1437794

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1416965

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Journal Article: Published Article

Journal Name:: Energy Economics

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 72; Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change impacts; integrated assessment; buildings energy demand

Citation Formats


                    Clarke, Leon, Eom, Jiyong, Marten, Elke Hodson, Horowitz, Russell, Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Mignone, Bryan K., Mundra, Anupriya, and Zhou, Yuyu. Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
        Web.  doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003.

Copy to clipboard


                    Clarke, Leon, Eom, Jiyong, Marten, Elke Hodson, Horowitz, Russell, Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Mignone, Bryan K., Mundra, Anupriya, & Zhou, Yuyu. Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures.  United States.  doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003.

Copy to clipboard


                    Clarke, Leon, Eom, Jiyong, Marten, Elke Hodson, Horowitz, Russell, Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Mignone, Bryan K., Mundra, Anupriya, and Zhou, Yuyu. Sat .  
        "Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures".  United States.  doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003.

Copy to clipboard


                    
@article{osti_1437794,

  title        = {Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures},

  author       = {Clarke, Leon and Eom, Jiyong and Marten, Elke Hodson and Horowitz, Russell and Kyle, Page and Link, Robert and Mignone, Bryan K. and Mundra, Anupriya and Zhou, Yuyu},

  abstractNote = {Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.},

  doi          = {10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003},

  journal      = {Energy Economics},

  issn         = {0140-9883},

  number       = ,

  volume       = 72,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {1}

}

Copy to clipboard

Journal Article:

Free Publicly Available Full Text

Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003

Other availability

Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1: The Structure of Energy Demand and Supply in the Buildings Energy Model used for all GCAM regions

All figures and tables (14 total)

Save / Share:

Export Metadata

Save to My Library

Figures / Tables found in this record:

Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.

Similar records in OSTI.GOV collections:

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

Journal Article Clarke, Leon E. ; Eom, Jiyong ; Hodson, Elke L. ; ... - Energy Economics

This paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. The analysis is conducted using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore »« less
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003
Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

Journal Article Clarke, Leon ; Eom, Jiyong ; Marten, Elke Hodson ; ... - Energy Economics

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore »« less
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.01.003

Full Text Available
LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

Journal Article Hejazi, Mohamad I. ; Edmonds, James A. ; Clarke, Leon E. ; ... - Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 81:205-226

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectorsmore »« less
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.05.006
Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

Journal Article Hejazi, Mohamad I. ; Edmonds, James A. ; Clarke, Leon E. ; ... - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(8):2859–2883

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM atmore »« less
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-2859-2014
The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Journal Article Zhou, Yuyu ; Eom, Jiyong ; Clarke, Leon E. - Climatic Change, 119(3-4):979-992

A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impactsmore »« less
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x

Similar Records