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Title: Forest response to rising CO 2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Abstract

Understanding how anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO 2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO 2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO 2 than Asian or African forests.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [2]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
  2. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  4. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
  6. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1436927
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Kooperman, Gabriel J., Chen, Yang, Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., Lindsay, Keith, Pritchard, Michael S., Swann, Abigail L. S., and Randerson, James T. Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7.
Kooperman, Gabriel J., Chen, Yang, Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., Lindsay, Keith, Pritchard, Michael S., Swann, Abigail L. S., & Randerson, James T. Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land. United States. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7.
Kooperman, Gabriel J., Chen, Yang, Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., Lindsay, Keith, Pritchard, Michael S., Swann, Abigail L. S., and Randerson, James T. Fri . "Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land". United States. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7.
@article{osti_1436927,
title = {Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land},
author = {Kooperman, Gabriel J. and Chen, Yang and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Koven, Charles D. and Lindsay, Keith and Pritchard, Michael S. and Swann, Abigail L. S. and Randerson, James T.},
abstractNote = {Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0144-7},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 5,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}

Journal Article:
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