skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: A New Method for Estimating Pick Uncertainty.

Abstract

Abstract not provided.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (NA-20)
OSTI Identifier:
1431754
Report Number(s):
SAND2017-6133PE
654370
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Proposed for presentation at the Meeting with AWE Nuclear Explosion Monitoring Staff held June 21-23, 2017 in Blacknest, United Kingdom.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Young, Christopher J. A New Method for Estimating Pick Uncertainty.. United States: N. p., 2017. Web.
Young, Christopher J. A New Method for Estimating Pick Uncertainty.. United States.
Young, Christopher J. Thu . "A New Method for Estimating Pick Uncertainty.". United States. doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1431754.
@article{osti_1431754,
title = {A New Method for Estimating Pick Uncertainty.},
author = {Young, Christopher J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract not provided.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Thu Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Conference:
Other availability
Please see Document Availability for additional information on obtaining the full-text document. Library patrons may search WorldCat to identify libraries that hold this conference proceeding.

Save / Share:
  • Thermal-hydraulic codes are subject o uncertainties that must be considered in determining whether safety criteria are satisfied in nuclear reactors. Uncertainties correspond to parameters in a thermal-hydraulic model. A thermal-hydraulic model is typically a nonlinear, discontinuous function of the uncertainties. Evaluating the effect of the uncertainties is difficult. This paper describes an efficient Monte Carlo method for determining the effect of the uncertainties.
  • Thermal-hydraulic computer codes represent non-linear functions that may contain discontinuities. Monte Carlo methods are an effective means of accurately evaluating the effect of uncertainty on a nonlinear function with discontinuities, but the computational requirements of standard Monte Carlo methods may be prohibitive. The linear variate Monte Carlo method is a means of reducing the computational requirements. The linear variate method combines the linear response surface method with Monte Carlo analysis to obtain an efficient and accurate method of nonlinear uncertainty analysis. The method is applied to the power limit analysis for the Savannah River Site reactors. 7 refs., 2 figs.,more » 3 tabs.« less
  • The importance of diffusional inhibition in catalysis has long been recognized. Particle-size-variation is sometimes employed, but this requires repeat runs with each catalyst, and furthermore cannot reveal micropore-diffusional inhibition, e.g., blockage of zeolite channels. The authors have developed a simple method of addressing this problem applicable to a broad range of model compound hydrocarbon reactions. Cracking is ubiquitous in such systems. The cracking pattern can be analyzed to delineate its primary and secondary components. Cracking can be treated as a sequential reaction (A{yields}B{yields}C). Since sequential reactions are sensitive to diffusion, diffusional inhibition can be measured in situ. Thus, the informationmore » pertains to the catalyst under actual experimental conditions. Both macropore- and micropore-inhibition are measured, as well as sudden changes, caused, e.g., by pore-blockage due to coke formation.« less
  • Numerous ambiguities, limitations and uncertainties in geomorphic research have resulted from a historical inability to reliably and quantitatively estimate (1) the age of exposure of a geomorphic surface, and (2) spatial variability of long-term erosion rates. Radioactive and stable nuclides produced in situ by cosmic ray bombardment of rock materials exposed at the earth's surface may enable one to estimate surface exposure ages and long-term erosion rates directly. Recent development of techniques for measuring and interpreting concentrations of these nuclides may ultimately help to resolve many long-standing geomorphic debates. Cosmogenic radionuclide pairs such as [sup 10]Be and [sup 26]Al havemore » been used most frequently to solve the governing equations for both erosion rates and surface exposure ages. However, the applicability of these techniques to geomorphic problems has been limited to some extent by the number of assumptions which had to be made to interpret the measured concentrations -- particularly those pertaining to steady-state or non-steady-state erosion conditions. The authors are developing a new method for interpreting the depth distribution of a single cosmogenic radionuclide in bedrock which avoids the need for many of these assumptions. Monte Carlo techniques are used to explore the range of erosion rate and exposure age conditions on a grid which would produce theoretical depth distributions of the radionuclide consistent with the measured depth profile. They plan to present new cosmogenic [sup 14]C data to corroborate the model results. Although unanswered questions and potential problems remain, this method appears to hold great promise for unraveling spatial variation in both erosion rates and exposure ages of a wide range of bedrock surfaces.« less
  • Most explorationists follow one of two approaches when analyzing risk. Application of single probability estimates combined with unique reserve potentials. Often, development potential is incorporated incorrectly on a no-risk basis. Detailed analysis using, for example, Monte Carlo approaches, requiring an abundance of data and computer processing. The method presented here combines advantages of both approaches, and permits rapid calculations using data routinely available. Before a prospect is drilled, precise reserve volumes are unknown. However, the likely range of reserves should be predictable with some certainty. The explorationist should also be able to estimate associated ranges of probabilities by careful matchingmore » with previous history in the area (or analogous area) combined with specific geologic conditions unique to the prospect. Reserve and probability ranges are estimated for the initial exploratory well, and presuming success, for subsequent development wells. Examples are: 2% probability of 200,000 bbl of oil, maximum; 25% probability of 10,000 bbl of oil, exploratory; 70% probability of 10,000 bbl of oil, development (latter 2 are economic limits). Data are plotted on cumulative probability logarithmic plots because reserve estimates, like field size distributions, should be logarithmically distributed. Expected volume reserves (initial well and development wells) are incorporated with costs and prices, using Bayesian principals, to predict economic outcome before any drilling commences. Analytic procedures are described, together with predictions of several exploratory programs compared with actual outcome. If the prospect group is sufficiently large, pre-drilling predictions are generally within 30% of actual results.« less