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Title: U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO 2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study

Abstract

We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO 2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energyeconomic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO 2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO 2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO 2 emissions compared to the CO 2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowingmore » the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [3];  [5];  [6];  [4];  [7]
  1. Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington, D.C. (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  3. OnLocation, Inc., Vienna, VA (United States)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  5. HEC Montreal, QC (Canada)
  6. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Pontificia Univ. Catolica de Valparaiso, (Chile)
  7. Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1430521
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-133176
Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883; PII: S0140988318301087
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 73; Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Citation Formats

Hodson, Elke L., Brown, Maxwell, Cohen, Stuart, Showalter, Sharon, Wise, Marshall, Wood, Frances, Caron, Justin, Feijoo, Felipe, Iyer, Gokul, and Cleary, Kathryne. U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.03.027.
Hodson, Elke L., Brown, Maxwell, Cohen, Stuart, Showalter, Sharon, Wise, Marshall, Wood, Frances, Caron, Justin, Feijoo, Felipe, Iyer, Gokul, & Cleary, Kathryne. U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study. United States. doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.03.027.
Hodson, Elke L., Brown, Maxwell, Cohen, Stuart, Showalter, Sharon, Wise, Marshall, Wood, Frances, Caron, Justin, Feijoo, Felipe, Iyer, Gokul, and Cleary, Kathryne. Thu . "U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study". United States. doi:10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.03.027. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1430521.
@article{osti_1430521,
title = {U.S. Energy Sector Impacts of Technology Innovation, Fuel Price, and Electric Sector CO2 Policy: Results from the EMF 32 Model Intercomparison Study},
author = {Hodson, Elke L. and Brown, Maxwell and Cohen, Stuart and Showalter, Sharon and Wise, Marshall and Wood, Frances and Caron, Justin and Feijoo, Felipe and Iyer, Gokul and Cleary, Kathryne},
abstractNote = {We study the impact of fuel prices, technology innovation, and a CO2 emissions reduction policy on both the electric power and end-use sectors by comparing outputs from four U.S. energyeconomic models through the year 2050. Achieving innovation goals decreases CO2 emissions in all models, regardless of natural gas price, due to increased energy efficiency and low-carbon generation becoming more cost competitive. For the models that include domestic natural gas markets, achieving innovation goals lowers wholesale electricity prices, but this effect diminishes as projected natural gas prices increase. Higher natural gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices but fewer coal capacity retirements. A CO2 electric power sector emissions cap influences electric sector evolution under reference technology assumptions but has little to no incremental influence when added to innovation goals. Long-term, meeting innovation goals achieves a generation mix with similar CO2 emissions compared to the CO2 policy but with smaller increases to wholesale electricity prices. In the short-term, the relative effect on wholesale prices differs by model. Finally, higher natural gas prices, achieving innovation goals, and the combination of the two, increases the amount of renewable generation that is cost-effective to build and operate while slowing the growth of natural-gas fired generation, which is the predominant generation type in 2050 under reference conditions.},
doi = {10.1016/J.ENECO.2018.03.027},
journal = {Energy Economics},
issn = {0140-9883},
number = ,
volume = 73,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

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