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Title: Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States

Abstract

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. Themore » use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
  2. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1426757
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 50; Journal Issue: 3-4; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate extremes; Dynamical downscaling; Ensemble; Global climate models; Regional climate models; Statistical evaluation

Citation Formats

Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., and Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3645-6.
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., & Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States. United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3645-6.
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., and Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Wed . "Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States". United States. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3645-6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1426757.
@article{osti_1426757,
title = {Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States},
author = {Zobel, Zachary and Wang, Jiali and Wuebbles, Donald J. and Kotamarthi, V. Rao},
abstractNote = {This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3645-6},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
issn = {0930-7575},
number = 3-4,
volume = 50,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {3}
}

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Cited by: 7 works
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

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    journal, January 2011

    • Jones, C. D.; Hughes, J. K.; Bellouin, N.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011

    High-Resolution Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Colorado Headwaters Region: Sensitivity to Physics Parameterizations
    journal, November 2011

    • Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Thompson, Gregory
    • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 139, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-11-00009.1

    Effects of spatial resolution in the simulation of daily and subdaily precipitation in the southwestern US: PRECIPITATION IN THE SW UNITED STATES
    journal, July 2013

    • Tripathi, Om P.; Dominguez, Francina
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 14
    • DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50590

    North American Regional Reanalysis
    journal, March 2006

    • Mesinger, Fedor; DiMego, Geoff; Kalnay, Eugenia
    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1175/bams-87-3-343

    Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime
    journal, June 1993


    Implementation and comparison of a suite of heat stress metrics within the Community Land Model version 4.5
    journal, January 2015

    • Buzan, J. R.; Oleson, K.; Huber, M.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-151-2015

    North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability
    journal, December 2013


    New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate
    journal, January 2005


    Potential for added value to downscaled climate extremes over Korea by increased resolution of a regional climate model
    journal, November 2013


    Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States: JANSSEN ET AL.
    journal, February 2014

    • Janssen, Emily; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.
    • Earth's Future, Vol. 2, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1002/2013ef000185

    The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
    journal, March 1996


    A Long-Term Hydrologically Based Dataset of Land Surface Fluxes and States for the Conterminous United States*
    journal, November 2002


    Influence of spatial resolution on regional climate model derived wind climates: RESOLUTION IMPACT ON WIND CLIMATES
    journal, February 2012

    • Pryor, S. C.; Nikulin, G.; Jones, C.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D3
    • DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016822

    Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general circulation model output
    journal, January 1990

    • Wigley, T. M. L.; Jones, P. D.; Briffa, K. R.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, Issue D2
    • DOI: 10.1029/jd095id02p01943

    The Impact of Different WRF Model Physical Parameterizations and Their Interactions on Warm Season MCS Rainfall
    journal, December 2005

    • Jankov, Isidora; Gallus, William A.; Segal, Moti
    • Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 20, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1175/waf888.1

    Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing
    journal, January 2014

    • Sherwood, Steven C.; Bony, Sandrine; Dufresne, Jean-Louis
    • Nature, Vol. 505, Issue 7481
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature12829

    The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project
    journal, April 2013


    Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: A review
    journal, January 1991

    • Giorgi, Filippo; Mearns, Linda O.
    • Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 29, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1029/90rg02636

    The Community Climate System Model Version 4
    journal, October 2011

    • Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.
    • Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19
    • DOI: 10.1175/2011jcli4083.1

    Real‐time and retrospective forcing in the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project
    journal, October 2003

    • Cosgrove, Brian A.; Lohmann, Dag; Mitchell, Kenneth E.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 108, Issue D22
    • DOI: 10.1029/2002jd003118

    Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs
    journal, December 2010

    • Gutowski, William J.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Kawazoe, Sho
    • Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 11, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1175/2010jhm1297.1

    Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models
    journal, January 2008

    • Iacono, Michael J.; Delamere, Jennifer S.; Mlawer, Eli J.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D13
    • DOI: 10.1029/2008jd009944

    A coupled synoptic-hydrological model for climate change impact assessment
    journal, January 1994


    Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY
    journal, March 2013

    • Knutti, Reto; Masson, David; Gettelman, Andrew
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50256

    Flash flood mitigation: recommendations for research and applications
    journal, March 2002


    Sensitivity of a Simulated Squall Line to Horizontal Resolution and Parameterization of Microphysics
    journal, January 2012


    An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections
    journal, March 2007


    Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific Developments Needed to Understand, Predict, and Respond to Climate Change
    journal, April 2009

    • Doherty, Sarah J.; Bojinski, Stephan; Henderson-Sellers, Ann
    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1175/2008bams2643.1

    The Dynamical Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3
    journal, July 2011

    • Donner, Leo J.; Wyman, Bruce L.; Hemler, Richard S.
    • Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 13
    • DOI: 10.1175/2011jcli3955.1

    Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations
    journal, December 1997

    • Wilby, R. L.; Wigley, T. M. L.
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