Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Journal Article · Tue Jan 30 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Environmental Science and Technology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b06006· OSTI ID:1426664

Elgowainy, Amgad ^[1]; Han, Jeongwoo ^[1]; Ward, Jacob ^[2]; Joseck, Fred ^[2]; Gohlke, David ^[1]; Lindauer, Alicia ^[2]; Ramsden, Todd ^[3]; Biddy, Mary  ^[3]; Alexander, Mark ^[4]; Barnhart, Steven ^[5]; Sutherland, Ian ^[6]; Verduzco, Laura ^[7]; Wallington, Timothy J. ^[8]

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1. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States
2. United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States
3. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States
4. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California 94304, United States
5. FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States
6. General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States
7. Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States
8. Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

• Research Organization: Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-06CH11357
• OSTI ID: 1426664
• Journal Information: Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 52, Issue 4; ISSN 0013-936X
• Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

Cradle-to-grave