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Title: Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations

Abstract

The 2016 SECURE Water Act report’s natural water availability benchmark, combined with the 2010 level of water demand from an integrated assessment model, is used as input to drive a large-scale water management model. The regulated flow at hydropower plants and thermoelectric plants in the Western U.S. electricity grid (WECC) is translated into potential hydropower generation and generation capacity constraints. The impact on reliability (unserved energy, reserve margin) and cost (production cost, carbon emissions) of water constraints on 2010-level WECC power system operations is assessed using an electricity production cost model (PCM). Use of the PCM reveals the changes in generation dispatch that reflect the inter-regional interdependencies in water-constrained generation and the ability to use other generation resources to meet all electricity loads in the WECC. August grid operational benchmarks show a range of sensitivity in production cost (-8 to +11%) and carbon emissions (-7 to 11%). The reference reserve margin threshold of 15% above peak load is maintained in the scenarios analyzed, but in 5 out of 55 years unserved energy is observed when normal operations are maintained. There is 1 chance in 10 that a year will demonstrate unserved energy in August, which defines the system’s historical performancemore » threshold to support impact, vulnerability, and adaptation analysis. For seasonal and longer term planning, i.e., multi-year drought, we demonstrate how the Water Scarcity Grid Impact Factor and climate oscillations (ENSO, PDO) can be used to plan for joint water-electricity management to maintain grid reliability.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1426362
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-121241
Journal ID: ISSN 0003-0007; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; Journal Volume: 99; Journal Issue: 2
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
adaptation; water-energy nexus; integrated modeling; hydro-climatology; production cost model; drought; electricity grid; climate impact

Citation Formats

Voisin, N., Kintner-Meyer, M., Wu, D., Skaggs, R., Fu, T., Zhou, T., Nguyen, T., and Kraucunas, I.. Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0253.1.
Voisin, N., Kintner-Meyer, M., Wu, D., Skaggs, R., Fu, T., Zhou, T., Nguyen, T., & Kraucunas, I.. Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations. United States. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0253.1.
Voisin, N., Kintner-Meyer, M., Wu, D., Skaggs, R., Fu, T., Zhou, T., Nguyen, T., and Kraucunas, I.. Thu . "Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations". United States. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0253.1.
@article{osti_1426362,
title = {Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations},
author = {Voisin, N. and Kintner-Meyer, M. and Wu, D. and Skaggs, R. and Fu, T. and Zhou, T. and Nguyen, T. and Kraucunas, I.},
abstractNote = {The 2016 SECURE Water Act report’s natural water availability benchmark, combined with the 2010 level of water demand from an integrated assessment model, is used as input to drive a large-scale water management model. The regulated flow at hydropower plants and thermoelectric plants in the Western U.S. electricity grid (WECC) is translated into potential hydropower generation and generation capacity constraints. The impact on reliability (unserved energy, reserve margin) and cost (production cost, carbon emissions) of water constraints on 2010-level WECC power system operations is assessed using an electricity production cost model (PCM). Use of the PCM reveals the changes in generation dispatch that reflect the inter-regional interdependencies in water-constrained generation and the ability to use other generation resources to meet all electricity loads in the WECC. August grid operational benchmarks show a range of sensitivity in production cost (-8 to +11%) and carbon emissions (-7 to 11%). The reference reserve margin threshold of 15% above peak load is maintained in the scenarios analyzed, but in 5 out of 55 years unserved energy is observed when normal operations are maintained. There is 1 chance in 10 that a year will demonstrate unserved energy in August, which defines the system’s historical performance threshold to support impact, vulnerability, and adaptation analysis. For seasonal and longer term planning, i.e., multi-year drought, we demonstrate how the Water Scarcity Grid Impact Factor and climate oscillations (ENSO, PDO) can be used to plan for joint water-electricity management to maintain grid reliability.},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0253.1},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = 2,
volume = 99,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Thu Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}