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Title: Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk

Journal Article · · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Nicholas School of the Environment
  2. Marquette Univ., Milwaukee, WI (United States). Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering
  3. Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States). Dept. of Biology
  4. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Nicholas School of the Environment and Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  5. Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050–2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will further facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate.

Research Organization:
Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States); World Climate Research Programme (WCRP); Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States); Max Planck Society, Jena (Germany). Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry; National Science Foundation (NSF)
Grant/Contract Number:
sc0011461; EAR-1454983; EAR-1331846; DGE-1068871; EAR-1316258; EAR-1338694; EAR-134470; DEB-1557176
OSTI ID:
1377084
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1425374
Journal Information:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 114 Journal Issue: 37; ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher:
National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 60 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
forest mortality
drought
climate change
hydraulic failure
stomatal closure