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Title: Probability of Encounter Between Ports of Entry (PrEP): Aversion Force-Field “Early Validation” Report

Abstract

To enhance detection and interdiction of radiological or nuclear material trafficking between primary POEs into the US, The Department of Homeland Security is faced with highly variable smuggling pathways through expansive geographic regions. The goal of this project is to test an approach to estimating likely pathways, as well as the probability of encounter along any given route. Our goal is to test the feasibility of a novel approach based on assessing the adversary’s perception of discovery likelihood over a broad geographic region, and using that result to estimate an “aversion force field” over the same region. The aversion force field is derived from analogies based on the physics of electric charges. Combining the aversion force with the intention of an adversary to reach their destination, generates a route that is consistent with both the adversary’s intention and their aversion to deterrent measures. Phase I is exploratory. Its goal to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. This report describes progress in an essential part of the approach, specifically, to implement and couple two principle model components: (1) the Bayesian network model of an adversary’s perception of discovery likelihood; and (2) the physics-inspired aversion field model. The objective is to showmore » that the field produced from the two components is plausible and consistent with the assumptions and the data. Figure 1 illustrates the workflow of this phase to the present stage. After collecting preliminary data and implementing each of the two model components, they were separately evaluated. Following this step, the output from the Bayesian network was input to the aversion field solver, and the combined results evaluated as reported here.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); U.S. Department of Homeland Security
OSTI Identifier:
1423964
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-18-21549
DOE Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Citation Formats

Ambrosiano, John Joseph, Dauelsberg, Lori Rose, and Tompkins, George. Probability of Encounter Between Ports of Entry (PrEP): Aversion Force-Field “Early Validation” Report. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1423964.
Ambrosiano, John Joseph, Dauelsberg, Lori Rose, & Tompkins, George. Probability of Encounter Between Ports of Entry (PrEP): Aversion Force-Field “Early Validation” Report. United States. doi:10.2172/1423964.
Ambrosiano, John Joseph, Dauelsberg, Lori Rose, and Tompkins, George. Tue . "Probability of Encounter Between Ports of Entry (PrEP): Aversion Force-Field “Early Validation” Report". United States. doi:10.2172/1423964. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1423964.
@article{osti_1423964,
title = {Probability of Encounter Between Ports of Entry (PrEP): Aversion Force-Field “Early Validation” Report},
author = {Ambrosiano, John Joseph and Dauelsberg, Lori Rose and Tompkins, George},
abstractNote = {To enhance detection and interdiction of radiological or nuclear material trafficking between primary POEs into the US, The Department of Homeland Security is faced with highly variable smuggling pathways through expansive geographic regions. The goal of this project is to test an approach to estimating likely pathways, as well as the probability of encounter along any given route. Our goal is to test the feasibility of a novel approach based on assessing the adversary’s perception of discovery likelihood over a broad geographic region, and using that result to estimate an “aversion force field” over the same region. The aversion force field is derived from analogies based on the physics of electric charges. Combining the aversion force with the intention of an adversary to reach their destination, generates a route that is consistent with both the adversary’s intention and their aversion to deterrent measures. Phase I is exploratory. Its goal to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. This report describes progress in an essential part of the approach, specifically, to implement and couple two principle model components: (1) the Bayesian network model of an adversary’s perception of discovery likelihood; and (2) the physics-inspired aversion field model. The objective is to show that the field produced from the two components is plausible and consistent with the assumptions and the data. Figure 1 illustrates the workflow of this phase to the present stage. After collecting preliminary data and implementing each of the two model components, they were separately evaluated. Following this step, the output from the Bayesian network was input to the aversion field solver, and the combined results evaluated as reported here.},
doi = {10.2172/1423964},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}

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