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Title: Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Abstract

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The rangesmore » of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [1];  [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8]
  1. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States
  2. United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States
  3. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States
  4. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California 94304, United States
  5. FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States
  6. General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States
  7. Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States
  8. Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)
OSTI Identifier:
1422882
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-70986
Journal ID: ISSN 0013-936X
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology; Journal Volume: 52; Journal Issue: 4
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; greenhouse gas; emissions; light-duty vehicles; cradle-to-grave; fuel cycle; vehicle manufacturing cycle

Citation Formats

Elgowainy, Amgad, Han, Jeongwoo, Ward, Jacob, Joseck, Fred, Gohlke, David, Lindauer, Alicia, Ramsden, Todd, Biddy, Mary, Alexander, Mark, Barnhart, Steven, Sutherland, Ian, Verduzco, Laura, and Wallington, Timothy J. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06006.
Elgowainy, Amgad, Han, Jeongwoo, Ward, Jacob, Joseck, Fred, Gohlke, David, Lindauer, Alicia, Ramsden, Todd, Biddy, Mary, Alexander, Mark, Barnhart, Steven, Sutherland, Ian, Verduzco, Laura, & Wallington, Timothy J. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment. United States. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06006.
Elgowainy, Amgad, Han, Jeongwoo, Ward, Jacob, Joseck, Fred, Gohlke, David, Lindauer, Alicia, Ramsden, Todd, Biddy, Mary, Alexander, Mark, Barnhart, Steven, Sutherland, Ian, Verduzco, Laura, and Wallington, Timothy J. Tue . "Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment". United States. doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06006.
@article{osti_1422882,
title = {Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment},
author = {Elgowainy, Amgad and Han, Jeongwoo and Ward, Jacob and Joseck, Fred and Gohlke, David and Lindauer, Alicia and Ramsden, Todd and Biddy, Mary and Alexander, Mark and Barnhart, Steven and Sutherland, Ian and Verduzco, Laura and Wallington, Timothy J.},
abstractNote = {This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.},
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.7b06006},
journal = {Environmental Science and Technology},
number = 4,
volume = 52,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 30 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Tue Jan 30 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}