A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

Hagos, Samson; Feng, Zhe; Plant, Robert S.; Houze, Jr., Robert A.; Xiao, Heng

doi:10.1002/2017MS001214

Title: A Stochastic Framework for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Convective Clouds

Journal Article · Tue Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2018 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001214· OSTI ID:1422021

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA

A stochastic prognostic framework for modeling the population dynamics of convective clouds and representing them in climate models is proposed. The framework follows the nonequilibrium statistical mechanical approach to constructing a master equation for representing the evolution of the number of convective cells of a specific size and their associated cloud-base mass flux, given a large-scale forcing. In this framework, referred to as STOchastic framework for Modeling Population dynamics of convective clouds (STOMP), the evolution of convective cell size is predicted from three key characteristics of convective cells: (i) the probability of growth, (ii) the probability of decay, and (iii) the cloud-base mass flux. STOMP models are constructed and evaluated against CPOL radar observations at Darwin and convection permitting model (CPM) simulations. Multiple models are constructed under various assumptions regarding these three key parameters and the realisms of these models are evaluated. It is shown that in a model where convective plumes prefer to aggregate spatially and the cloud-base mass flux is a nonlinear function of convective cell area, the mass flux manifests a recharge-discharge behavior under steady forcing. Such a model also produces observed behavior of convective cell populations and CPM simulated cloud-base mass flux variability under diurnally varying forcing. Finally, in addition to its use in developing understanding of convection processes and the controls on convective cell size distributions, this modeling framework is also designed to serve as a nonequilibrium closure formulations for spectral mass flux parameterizations.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1422021

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1422023; OSTI ID: 1423628

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-133047

Journal Information:: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Vol. 10 Journal Issue: 2; ISSN 1942-2466

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 18 works

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