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Title: Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements

Abstract

The goal of this analysis was to assess the wind power forecast accuracy of the Vermont Weather Analytics Center (VTWAC) forecast system and to identify potential improvements to the forecasts. Based on the analysis at Georgia Mountain, the following recommendations for improving forecast performance were made: 1. Resolve the significant negative forecast bias in February-March 2017 (50% underprediction on average) 2. Improve the ability of the forecast model to capture the strong diurnal cycle of wind power 3. Add ability for forecast model to assess internal wake loss, particularly at sites where strong diurnal shifts in wind direction are present. Data availability and quality limited the robustness of this forecast assessment. A more thorough analysis would be possible given a longer period of record for the data (at least one full year), detailed supervisory control and data acquisition data for each wind plant, and more detailed information on the forecast system input data and methodologies.

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1419925
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-5000-70313
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; wind energy; wind power forecasting; utility load forecasting; diurnal cycles; complex flow; SCADA data

Citation Formats

Optis, Michael, Scott, George N., and Draxl, Caroline. Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1419925.
Optis, Michael, Scott, George N., & Draxl, Caroline. Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements. United States. doi:10.2172/1419925.
Optis, Michael, Scott, George N., and Draxl, Caroline. Fri . "Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements". United States. doi:10.2172/1419925. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1419925.
@article{osti_1419925,
title = {Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements},
author = {Optis, Michael and Scott, George N. and Draxl, Caroline},
abstractNote = {The goal of this analysis was to assess the wind power forecast accuracy of the Vermont Weather Analytics Center (VTWAC) forecast system and to identify potential improvements to the forecasts. Based on the analysis at Georgia Mountain, the following recommendations for improving forecast performance were made: 1. Resolve the significant negative forecast bias in February-March 2017 (50% underprediction on average) 2. Improve the ability of the forecast model to capture the strong diurnal cycle of wind power 3. Add ability for forecast model to assess internal wake loss, particularly at sites where strong diurnal shifts in wind direction are present. Data availability and quality limited the robustness of this forecast assessment. A more thorough analysis would be possible given a longer period of record for the data (at least one full year), detailed supervisory control and data acquisition data for each wind plant, and more detailed information on the forecast system input data and methodologies.},
doi = {10.2172/1419925},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Feb 02 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Fri Feb 02 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}

Technical Report:

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