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Title: High‐Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

Journal Article · · Earth's Future
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000642· OSTI ID:1413834
 [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois Champaign Urbana IL USA
  2. Division of Environmental Sciences Argonne National Laboratory Chicago IL USA
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Abstract The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal‐length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm‐side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm‐side shift with decreased variability. Using “business‐as‐usual” scenario, 5‐day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.

Research Organization:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP)
Grant/Contract Number:
DE‐AC02‐06CH11357; AC02-06CH11357
OSTI ID:
1413834
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1413835; OSTI ID: 1417476
Journal Information:
Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Vol. 5 Journal Issue: 12; ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 25 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Downscaling
High Resolution
Ensembles
Temperature Extremes
Future Projections
United States