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Title: Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

Abstract

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out.more » Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1416671
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-125597
Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Applied Energy; Journal Volume: 209; Journal Issue: C
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Burleyson, Casey D., Voisin, Nathalie, Taylor, Z. Todd, Xie, Yulong, and Kraucunas, Ian. Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.244.
Burleyson, Casey D., Voisin, Nathalie, Taylor, Z. Todd, Xie, Yulong, & Kraucunas, Ian. Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations. United States. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.244.
Burleyson, Casey D., Voisin, Nathalie, Taylor, Z. Todd, Xie, Yulong, and Kraucunas, Ian. Mon . "Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations". United States. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.244.
@article{osti_1416671,
title = {Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations},
author = {Burleyson, Casey D. and Voisin, Nathalie and Taylor, Z. Todd and Xie, Yulong and Kraucunas, Ian},
abstractNote = {Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.244},
journal = {Applied Energy},
number = C,
volume = 209,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}