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Title: Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Abstract

Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [5]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States)
  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States)
  4. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
  5. Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, and Morgantown, WV (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Analysis (EI-30) (Energy Analysis Corporate)
OSTI Identifier:
1416124
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-70528
7829
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; capacity expansion model; concentrating solar power; capacity value; high variable generation; load duration curve; net present value; quadratically constrained program

Citation Formats

Cole, Wesley, Frew, Bethany, Mai, Trieu, Sun, Yinong, Bistline, John, Blanford, Geoffrey, Young, David, Marcy, Cara, Namovicz, Chris, Edelman, Risa, Meroney, Bill, Sims, Ryan, Stenhouse, Jeb, and Donohoo-Vallett, Paul. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1416124.
Cole, Wesley, Frew, Bethany, Mai, Trieu, Sun, Yinong, Bistline, John, Blanford, Geoffrey, Young, David, Marcy, Cara, Namovicz, Chris, Edelman, Risa, Meroney, Bill, Sims, Ryan, Stenhouse, Jeb, & Donohoo-Vallett, Paul. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective. United States. doi:10.2172/1416124.
Cole, Wesley, Frew, Bethany, Mai, Trieu, Sun, Yinong, Bistline, John, Blanford, Geoffrey, Young, David, Marcy, Cara, Namovicz, Chris, Edelman, Risa, Meroney, Bill, Sims, Ryan, Stenhouse, Jeb, and Donohoo-Vallett, Paul. 2017. "Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective". United States. doi:10.2172/1416124. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1416124.
@article{osti_1416124,
title = {Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective},
author = {Cole, Wesley and Frew, Bethany and Mai, Trieu and Sun, Yinong and Bistline, John and Blanford, Geoffrey and Young, David and Marcy, Cara and Namovicz, Chris and Edelman, Risa and Meroney, Bill and Sims, Ryan and Stenhouse, Jeb and Donohoo-Vallett, Paul},
abstractNote = {Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.},
doi = {10.2172/1416124},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month =
}

Technical Report:

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