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Title: A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

Abstract

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1415076
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-121534
Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Climate Change Economics; Journal Volume: 08; Journal Issue: 04
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; fo; in

Citation Formats

EDMONDS, JAMES A., LINK, ROBERT, WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T., and CUI, RYNA. A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1142/S2010007817500129.
EDMONDS, JAMES A., LINK, ROBERT, WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T., & CUI, RYNA. A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems. United States. doi:10.1142/S2010007817500129.
EDMONDS, JAMES A., LINK, ROBERT, WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T., and CUI, RYNA. Wed . "A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems". United States. doi:10.1142/S2010007817500129.
@article{osti_1415076,
title = {A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems},
author = {EDMONDS, JAMES A. and LINK, ROBERT and WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T. and CUI, RYNA},
abstractNote = {Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.},
doi = {10.1142/S2010007817500129},
journal = {Climate Change Economics},
number = 04,
volume = 08,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}