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Title: High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have amore » less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of Illinois Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States)
  2. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Chicago, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP); USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1413834
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1413835; OSTI ID: 1417476
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Published Article
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Downscaling; High Resolution; Ensembles; Temperature Extremes; Future Projections; United States

Citation Formats

Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., and Kotamarthi, V. Rao. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017EF000642.
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., & Kotamarthi, V. Rao. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States. United States. doi:10.1002/2017EF000642.
Zobel, Zachary, Wang, Jiali, Wuebbles, Donald J., and Kotamarthi, V. Rao. Mon . "High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States". United States. doi:10.1002/2017EF000642.
@article{osti_1413834,
title = {High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States},
author = {Zobel, Zachary and Wang, Jiali and Wuebbles, Donald J. and Kotamarthi, V. Rao},
abstractNote = {The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000642},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 12,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Mon Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1002/2017EF000642

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