skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1413770
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-94ER61937
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Economics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 65; Journal Issue: C; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2017-12-15 22:10:31; Journal ID: ISSN 0140-9883
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Winchester, Niven, and Ledvina, Kirby. The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use. United Kingdom: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008.
Winchester, Niven, & Ledvina, Kirby. The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use. United Kingdom. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008.
Winchester, Niven, and Ledvina, Kirby. Thu . "The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use". United Kingdom. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008.
@article{osti_1413770,
title = {The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use},
author = {Winchester, Niven and Ledvina, Kirby},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008},
journal = {Energy Economics},
number = C,
volume = 65,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Thu Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Thu Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008

Save / Share:
  • In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production, particularly on crop yields and human food consumption. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and land use systems. The resultsmore » indicate that carbon mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy crops, dependent on the severity of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human consumption of calories.« less
  • This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other landmore » use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.« less
  • Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporatesmore » (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual positive flux trends of 0.2% and 0.52% throughout the entire period are found in Asia and China, respectively, related to a positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g., from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979–2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated with the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are compared to field campaign measurements in Borneo and South China and further evaluated against top-down isoprene emission estimates constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007–2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to characterize the spatial variability of emission factors better. To conclude, a decreasing trend in the inferred top-down Chinese emissions since 2007 is in line with recorded cooling in China after that year, thus suggesting that the satellite HCHO columns are able to capture climate-induced changes in emissions.« less
  • Offshore hydrocarbon exploration has been undertaken on Canada's Atlantic continental shelf since 1964. However, it has been only recently that the Hibernia find off the coast of Newfoundland has raised the possibility of the eventual production of oil. This study reviews the history of offshore exploration, comments on the locational significance of the Hibernia field, and analyzes the implications of the Newfoundland government's policies for affecting the location of onshore support facilities. A critique of these policies is placed within the context of coastal zone management and planning. 16 references.
  • Cited by 4