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Title: Assimilation of Z DR Columns for Improving the Spinup and Forecast of Convective Storms in Storm-Scale Models: Proof-of-Concept Experiments

Journal Article · · Monthly Weather Review
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [3]
  1. School of Meteorology, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma
  2. NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma
  3. Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma
+ Show Author Affiliations

Achieving accurate storm-scale analyses and reducing the spinup time of modeled convection is a primary motivation for the assimilation of radar reflectivity data. One common technique of reflectivity data assimilation is using a cloud analysis, which inserts temperature and moisture increments and hydrometeors deduced from radar reflectivity via empirical relations to induce and sustain updraft circulations. Polarimetric radar data have the ability to provide enhanced insight into the microphysical and dynamic structure of convection. Thus far, however, relatively little has been done to leverage these data for numerical weather prediction. In this study, the Advanced Regional Prediction System’s cloud analysis is modified from its original reflectivity-based formulation to provide moisture and latent heat adjustments based on the detection of differential reflectivity columns, which can serve as proxies for updrafts in deep moist convection and, subsequently, areas of saturation and latent heat release. Cycled model runs using both the original cloud analysis and above modifications are performed for two high-impact weather cases: the 19 May 2013 central Oklahoma tornadic supercells and the 25 May 2016 north-central Kansas tornadic supercell. The analyses and forecasts of convection qualitatively and quantitatively improve in both cases, including more coherent analyzed updrafts, more realistic forecast reflectivity structures, a better correspondence between forecast updraft helicity tracks and radar-derived rotation tracks, and improved frequency biases and equitable threat scores for reflectivity. Finally, based on these encouraging results, further exploration of the assimilation of dual-polarization radar data into storm-scale models is warranted.

Research Organization:
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0014295
OSTI ID:
1413571
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1541864
Journal Information:
Monthly Weather Review, Journal Name: Monthly Weather Review Vol. 145 Journal Issue: 12; ISSN 0027-0644
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 39 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
meteorology & atmospheric sciences
radars/radar obsrevations
numerical weather prediction/forecasting
cloud resolving models
data assimilation