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Title: Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

Abstract

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances, including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire, are growing as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. Here, we explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Our efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [2]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Geology and Geological Engineering Dept.
  4. United States Geological Survey, Los Alamos, NM (United States). Jemez Mountain Field Station
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1413486
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-129507
Journal ID: ISSN 0169-5347; PII: S0169534717302616
Grant/Contract Number:
WSC-1204787; AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Trends in Ecology and Evolution
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 33; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0169-5347
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; disequilibrium; ecosystem theory; hydrology

Citation Formats

McDowell, Nate G., Michaletz, Sean T., Bennett, Katrina E., Solander, Kurt C., Xu, Chonggang, Maxwell, Reed M., Allen, Craig D., and Middleton, Richard S.. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002.
McDowell, Nate G., Michaletz, Sean T., Bennett, Katrina E., Solander, Kurt C., Xu, Chonggang, Maxwell, Reed M., Allen, Craig D., & Middleton, Richard S.. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation. United States. doi:10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002.
McDowell, Nate G., Michaletz, Sean T., Bennett, Katrina E., Solander, Kurt C., Xu, Chonggang, Maxwell, Reed M., Allen, Craig D., and Middleton, Richard S.. 2017. "Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation". United States. doi:10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002.
@article{osti_1413486,
title = {Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation},
author = {McDowell, Nate G. and Michaletz, Sean T. and Bennett, Katrina E. and Solander, Kurt C. and Xu, Chonggang and Maxwell, Reed M. and Allen, Craig D. and Middleton, Richard S.},
abstractNote = {Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances, including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire, are growing as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. Here, we explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Our efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.},
doi = {10.1016/J.TREE.2017.10.002},
journal = {Trends in Ecology and Evolution},
number = 1,
volume = 33,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month =
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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