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Title: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Drivers and Impacts of Adoption.

Abstract

We present scenario and parametric analyses of the US light duty vehicle (LDV) stock, sim- ulating the evolution of the stock in order to assess the potential role and impacts of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). The analysis probes the competition of FCEVs with other LDVs and the effects of FCEV adoption on LDV fuel use and emissions. We parameterize commodity and technology prices in order to explore the sensitivities of FCEV sales and emissions to oil, natural gas, battery technology, fuel cell technology, and hydrogen produc- tion prices. We additionally explore the effects of vehicle purchasing incentives for FCEVs, identifying potential impacts and tipping points. Our analyses lead to the following conclu- sions: (1) In the business as usual scenario, FCEVs comprise 7% of all new LDV sales by 2050. (2) FCEV adoption will not substantially impact green house gas emissions without either policy intervention, significant increases in natural gas prices, or technology improve- ments that motivate low carbon hydrogen production. (3) FCEV technology cost reductions have a much greater potential for impact on FCEV sales than hydrogen fuel cost reductions. (4) FCEV purchasing incentives must be both substantial and sustained in order to motivate lasting changes to FCEVmore » adoption.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Fuel Cell Technologies Office (EE-3F)
OSTI Identifier:
1410780
Report Number(s):
SAND-2017-12854
659066
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Citation Formats

Levinson, Rebecca Sobel, West, Todd H., and Manley, Dawn K.. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Drivers and Impacts of Adoption.. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1410780.
Levinson, Rebecca Sobel, West, Todd H., & Manley, Dawn K.. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Drivers and Impacts of Adoption.. United States. doi:10.2172/1410780.
Levinson, Rebecca Sobel, West, Todd H., and Manley, Dawn K.. Wed . "Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Drivers and Impacts of Adoption.". United States. doi:10.2172/1410780. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1410780.
@article{osti_1410780,
title = {Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Drivers and Impacts of Adoption.},
author = {Levinson, Rebecca Sobel and West, Todd H. and Manley, Dawn K.},
abstractNote = {We present scenario and parametric analyses of the US light duty vehicle (LDV) stock, sim- ulating the evolution of the stock in order to assess the potential role and impacts of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). The analysis probes the competition of FCEVs with other LDVs and the effects of FCEV adoption on LDV fuel use and emissions. We parameterize commodity and technology prices in order to explore the sensitivities of FCEV sales and emissions to oil, natural gas, battery technology, fuel cell technology, and hydrogen produc- tion prices. We additionally explore the effects of vehicle purchasing incentives for FCEVs, identifying potential impacts and tipping points. Our analyses lead to the following conclu- sions: (1) In the business as usual scenario, FCEVs comprise 7% of all new LDV sales by 2050. (2) FCEV adoption will not substantially impact green house gas emissions without either policy intervention, significant increases in natural gas prices, or technology improve- ments that motivate low carbon hydrogen production. (3) FCEV technology cost reductions have a much greater potential for impact on FCEV sales than hydrogen fuel cost reductions. (4) FCEV purchasing incentives must be both substantial and sustained in order to motivate lasting changes to FCEV adoption.},
doi = {10.2172/1410780},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Technical Report:

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