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Title: Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Journal Article · · Climatic Change
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [2];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [2];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [2];  [4];  [16] more »;  [17];  [14];  [18];  [19];  [1];  [20];  [2];  [16];  [21];  [2];  [14];  [1];  [22];  [23];  [16];  [24];  [25];  [13];  [2];  [26];  [27];  [28] « less
  1. Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)
  2. University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  3. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States)
  4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  5. Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME (United States)
  6. Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra (Australia)
  7. Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)
  8. Lund University, Lund (Sweden)
  9. LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  10. Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States)
  11. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  12. US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)
  13. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  14. Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden)
  15. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
  16. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  17. CNRS/UJF-Grenoble 1, LGGE, Grenoble (France)
  18. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  19. University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
  20. Arctic Network, National Park Service, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  21. Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam (Germany)
  22. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
  23. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  24. AgriFoods, Ottawa (Canada)
  25. University of Guelph (Canada)
  26. U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO (United States)
  27. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  28. North-East Scientific Station, Cherskii (Siberia)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50% larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1407339
Journal Information:
Climatic Change, Vol. 119, Issue 2; ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
SpringerCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 221 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (87)

Siberian tundra ecosystem vegetation and carbon stocks four decades after wildfire journal November 2014
Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges: MODELING THE ARCTIC FRESHWATER SYSTEM journal March 2016
Comparison of effects of cold‐region soil/snow processes and the uncertainties from model forcing data on permafrost physical characteristics journal March 2016
A conceptual model of the controlling factors of soil organic carbon and nitrogen densities in a permafrost-affected region on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Contributions of Factors to Soil Carbon journal July 2017
Radium isotope fingerprinting of permafrost ‐ applications to thawing and intra‐permafrost processes journal March 2019
Impact of dynamic vegetation phenology on the simulated pan-Arctic land surface state journal March 2018
Relationships Among pH, Minerals, and Carbon in Soils from Tundra to Boreal Forest Across Alaska journal May 2016
Effects of shoreline permafrost thaw on nutrient dynamics and diatom ecology in a subarctic tundra pond journal May 2019
Global challenges and adaptations in management practices to preserve soil carbon pool with changing climate journal July 2018
Stability Conditions of Peat Plateaus and Palsas in Northern Norway journal March 2019
Biodegradability of Thermokarst Carbon in a Till-Associated, Glacial Margin Landscape: The Case of the Peel Plateau, NWT, Canada journal October 2018
Methane dynamics regulated by microbial community response to permafrost thaw journal October 2014
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback journal April 2015
Tundra soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate warming journal February 2016
Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands journal June 2017
Determinants of carbon release from the active layer and permafrost deposits on the Tibetan Plateau journal October 2016
Permafrost thawing as a possible source of abrupt carbon release at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød journal November 2014
Utilization of ancient permafrost carbon in headwaters of Arctic fluvial networks journal July 2015
Climate-sensitive northern lakes and ponds are critical components of methane release journal January 2016
Tundra microbial community taxa and traits predict decomposition parameters of stable, old soil organic carbon journal August 2019
Evidence for non-steady-state carbon emissions from snow-scoured alpine tundra journal March 2019
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release journal September 2018
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw journal February 2020
Regional paleofire regimes affected by non-uniform climate, vegetation and human drivers journal September 2015
Methane emissions from Alaska in 2012 from CARVE airborne observations journal November 2014
Responses of tundra soil microbial communities to half a decade of experimental warming at two critical depths journal July 2019
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate journal August 2014
Missing pieces to modeling the Arctic-Boreal puzzle journal February 2018
Understanding spatial variability of methane fluxes in Arctic wetlands through footprint modelling journal December 2019
Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska journal December 2019
Evaluation of simulated soil carbon dynamics in Arctic-Boreal ecosystems journal February 2020
Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data journal October 2013
Temperature and peat type control CO 2 and CH 4 production in Alaskan permafrost peats journal April 2014
A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH 4 and CO 2 production from anoxic soil incubations journal March 2015
Winter precipitation and snow accumulation drive the methane sink or source strength of Arctic tussock tundra journal May 2016
Isotopic insights into methane production, oxidation, and emissions in Arctic polygon tundra journal June 2016
Microbial functional diversity covaries with permafrost thaw-induced environmental heterogeneity in tundra soil journal September 2017
Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw journal February 2019
Soil and human security in the 21st century journal May 2015
Estimating the Economic Impact of the Permafrost Carbon Feedback journal April 2017
Degrading permafrost mapped with electrical resistivity tomography, airborne imagery and LiDAR, and seasonal thaw measurements journal January 2016
High colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption in surface waters of the central-eastern Arctic Ocean: Implications for biogeochemistry and ocean color algorithms journal January 2018
Organic Carbon Pools and Genesis of Alpine Soils with Permafrost: A Review journal November 2014
Permafrost degradation stimulates carbon loss from experimentally warmed tundra journal March 2014
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Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity journal January 2015
Storage and transformation of organic matter fractions in cryoturbated permafrost soils across the Siberian Arctic journal January 2015
The origin of methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf unraveled with triple isotope analysis journal January 2017
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Accurate measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane mole fractions at the Siberian coastal site Ambarchik posted_content October 2018
Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity other January 2015
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