Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data
- Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonal skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks
- Research Organization:
- Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- DOE Contract Number:
- SC0014050
- OSTI ID:
- 1405606
- Report Number(s):
- DOE-STONYBROOK-14050-1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Observed and projected decrease in Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclone activity in summer and its impacts on maximum temperature: NH SUMMER CYCLONE DECREASE AND IMPACTS
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journal | March 2016 |
Impacts of Storm-Track Variations on Wintertime Extreme Weather Events over the Continental United States
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journal | June 2017 |
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