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Title: Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

Abstract

The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonal skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer -more » These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks« less

Authors:
 [1]
  1. Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1405606
Report Number(s):
DOE-STONYBROOK-14050-1
DOE Contract Number:  
SC0014050
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; storm tracks; extreme events; subseasonal to seasonal prediction

Citation Formats

Chang, Edmund Kar-Man. Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1405606.
Chang, Edmund Kar-Man. Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data. United States. doi:10.2172/1405606.
Chang, Edmund Kar-Man. Mon . "Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data". United States. doi:10.2172/1405606. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1405606.
@article{osti_1405606,
title = {Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data},
author = {Chang, Edmund Kar-Man},
abstractNote = {The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonal skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks},
doi = {10.2172/1405606},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Oct 30 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Mon Oct 30 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

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