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Title: Cyber Deterrence and Stability

Abstract

Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1405058
Report Number(s):
PNNL-26932
453040357
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; Cyber; Treaties; Arms Control; Deterrence; Cyber Deterrence; Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty; Biological Weapons Convention; Chemical Weapons Convention

Citation Formats

Goychayev, Rustam, Carr, Geoffrey A., Weise, Rachel A., Donnelly, David A., Clements, Samuel L., Benz, Jacob M., Rodda, Kabrena E., Bartholomew, Rachel A., McKinnon, Archibald D., and Andres, Richard B. Cyber Deterrence and Stability. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1405058.
Goychayev, Rustam, Carr, Geoffrey A., Weise, Rachel A., Donnelly, David A., Clements, Samuel L., Benz, Jacob M., Rodda, Kabrena E., Bartholomew, Rachel A., McKinnon, Archibald D., & Andres, Richard B. Cyber Deterrence and Stability. United States. doi:10.2172/1405058.
Goychayev, Rustam, Carr, Geoffrey A., Weise, Rachel A., Donnelly, David A., Clements, Samuel L., Benz, Jacob M., Rodda, Kabrena E., Bartholomew, Rachel A., McKinnon, Archibald D., and Andres, Richard B. Sat . "Cyber Deterrence and Stability". United States. doi:10.2172/1405058. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1405058.
@article{osti_1405058,
title = {Cyber Deterrence and Stability},
author = {Goychayev, Rustam and Carr, Geoffrey A. and Weise, Rachel A. and Donnelly, David A. and Clements, Samuel L. and Benz, Jacob M. and Rodda, Kabrena E. and Bartholomew, Rachel A. and McKinnon, Archibald D. and Andres, Richard B.},
abstractNote = {Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, deterrence and arms control have been cornerstones of strategic stability between the superpowers. However, the weaponization of the cyber realm by State actors and the multipolar nature of cyber conflict now undermines that stability. Strategic stability is the state in which nations believe that if they act aggressively to undermine U.S. national interests and the post-World War II liberal democratic order, the consequences will outweigh the benefits. The sense of lawlessness and lack of consequences in the cyber realm embolden States to be more aggressive in taking actions that undermine stability. Accordingly, this paper examines 1) the role of deterrence and arms control in securing cyber stability, and 2) the limitations and challenges associated with these traditional national security paradigms as applied to this emerging threat domain. This paper demonstrates that many 20th-century deterrence and arms control concepts are not particularly applicable in the cyber realm. However, they are not entirely irrelevant. The United States can distill lessons learned from this rich deterrence and arms control experience to develop and deploy a strategy to advance cyber stability.},
doi = {10.2172/1405058},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Sep 30 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Sat Sep 30 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

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