On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation

Strapasson, Alexandre; Woods, Jeremy; Chum, Helena; Kalas, Nicole; Shah, Nilay; Rosillo-Calle, Frank

doi:10.1111/gcbb.12456

Title: On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation

Journal Article · Wed May 24 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12456· OSTI ID:1404875

^[1]; Woods, Jeremy ^[2]; Chum, Helena ^[3]; Kalas, Nicole ^[2]; Shah, Nilay ^[2]; Rosillo-Calle, Frank ^[2]

Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States); Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Across energy, agricultural and forestry landscapes, the production of biomass for energy has emerged as a controversial driver of land-use change. We present a novel, simple methodology, to probe the potential global sustainability limits of bioenergy over time for energy provision and climate change mitigation using a complex-systems approach for assessing land-use dynamics. Primary biomass that could provide between 70 EJ year^-1 and 360 EJ year^-1, globally, by 2050 was simulated in the context of different land-use futures, food diet patterns and climate change mitigation efforts. Our simulations also show ranges of potential greenhouse gas emissions for agriculture, forestry and other land uses by 2050, including not only above-ground biomass-related emissions, but also from changes in soil carbon, from as high as 24 GtCO₂eq year-1 to as low as minus 21 GtCO₂eq year^-1, which would represent a significant source of negative emissions. Based on the modelling simulations, the discussions offer novel insights about bioenergy as part of a broader integrated system. As a result, there are sustainability limits to the scale of bioenergy provision, they are dynamic over time, being responsive to land management options deployed worldwide.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Sustainable Transportation Office. Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1404875

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5100-68503

Journal Information:: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy, Vol. 9, Issue 12; ISSN 1757-1693

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 35 works

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Modeling Forest Woody Biomass Availability for Energy Use Based on Short-Term Forecasting Scenarios Flores Hernández, Ulises; Jaeger, Dirk; Samperio, Jorge Islas Waste and Biomass Valorization, Vol. 11, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12649-018-0511-7	journal	November 2018
The role of biomass in China’s long-term mitigation toward the Paris climate goals Pan, Xunzhang; Chen, Wenying; Wang, Lining Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf06c	journal	December 2018
A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic Morshed, Alexandra B.; Kasman, Matt; Heuberger, Benjamin Obesity Reviews, Vol. 20, Issue S2 https://doi.org/10.1111/obr.12877	journal	July 2019
Pretreatment of South African sugarcane bagasse using a low-cost protic ionic liquid: a comparison of whole, depithed, fibrous and pith bagasse fractions Chambon, Clementine L.; Mkhize, Thandeka Y.; Reddy, Prashant Biotechnology for Biofuels, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s13068-018-1247-0	journal	September 2018
Applying a Sustainable Development Lens to Global Biomass Potentials Beuchelt, Tina D.; Nassl, Michael Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11185078	journal	September 2019

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