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Title: Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships: REVISITING ENSO/IOD PHASE RELATIONSHIPS

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7];  [8]
  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu Hawai'i USA, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA, Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder Colorado USA
  2. IBS Center for Climate Physics (ICCP), Pusan National University, Busan South Korea, IPRC, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu Hawai'i USA
  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu Hawai'i USA
  4. Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan Utah USA
  5. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China
  6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton New Jersey USA
  7. Department of Mathematics, University of Hawai'i at West O'ahu, Kapolei Hawai'i USA
  8. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu Hawai'i USA, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1402344
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0005110
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 5; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2017-10-23 17:56:05; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Stuecker, Malte F., Timmermann, Axel, Jin, Fei-Fei, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Zhang, Wenjun, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Widiasih, Esther, and Zhao, Sen. Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships: REVISITING ENSO/IOD PHASE RELATIONSHIPS. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2016GL072308.
Stuecker, Malte F., Timmermann, Axel, Jin, Fei-Fei, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Zhang, Wenjun, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Widiasih, Esther, & Zhao, Sen. Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships: REVISITING ENSO/IOD PHASE RELATIONSHIPS. United States. doi:10.1002/2016GL072308.
Stuecker, Malte F., Timmermann, Axel, Jin, Fei-Fei, Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu, Zhang, Wenjun, Wittenberg, Andrew T., Widiasih, Esther, and Zhao, Sen. Mon . "Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships: REVISITING ENSO/IOD PHASE RELATIONSHIPS". United States. doi:10.1002/2016GL072308.
@article{osti_1402344,
title = {Revisiting ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole phase relationships: REVISITING ENSO/IOD PHASE RELATIONSHIPS},
author = {Stuecker, Malte F. and Timmermann, Axel and Jin, Fei-Fei and Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu and Zhang, Wenjun and Wittenberg, Andrew T. and Widiasih, Esther and Zhao, Sen},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1002/2016GL072308},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 5,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 13 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Mon Mar 13 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1002/2016GL072308

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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  • Climate models project a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD)-like SST response in the tropical Indian Ocean to global warming. By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of the formation mechanisms for the changes in the tropical Indian Ocean during the pIOD versus global warming. Results show that their formation processes and related seasonality are quite similar; in particular, the Bjerknes feedback is the leading mechanism in producing the anomalous cooling over the eastern tropics in both cases.more » Some differences are also found, including that the cooling effect of the vertical advection over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean is dominated by the anomalous vertical velocity during the pIOD while it is dominated by the anomalous upper-ocean stratification under global warming. Lastly, these findings above are further examined with an analysis of the mixed layer heat budget.« less
  • The superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) is used to investigate the impact and geographic sensitivity of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) propagation. The goal is to clarify potentially appreciable +IOD effects on MJO dynamics detected in prior studies by using a global model with explicit convection representation. Prescribed climatological October SSTs and variants of the SST distribution from October 2006, a +IOD event, force the model. Modest MJO convection weakening over the Maritime Continent occurs when either climatological SSTs, or +IOD SST anomalies restricted to the Indian Ocean, are applied. However, severe MJOmore » weakening occurs when either +IOD SST anomalies are applied globally or restricted to the equatorial Pacific. MJO disruption is associated with time-mean changes in the zonal wind profile and lower moist static energy (MSE) in subsiding air masses imported from the Subtropics by Rossby-like gyres. On intraseasonal scales, MJO disruption arises from significantly smaller MSE accumulation, weaker meridional advective moistening, and overactive submonthly eddies that mix drier subtropical air into the path of MJO convection. These results (1) demonstrate that SPCAM reproduces observed time-mean and intraseasonal changes during +IOD episodes, (2) reaffirm the role that submonthly eddies play in MJO propagation and show that such multiscale interactions are sensitive to interannual SST states, and (3) suggest that boreal fall +IOD SSTs local to the Indian Ocean have a significantly smaller impact on Maritime Continent MJO propagation compared to contemporaneous Pacific SST anomalies which, for October 2006, resemble El Ninõ-like conditions.« less
    Cited by 5
  • The superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) is used to investigate the impact and geographic sensitivity of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) propagation. The goal is to clarify potentially appreciable +IOD effects on MJO dynamics detected in prior studies by using a global model with explicit convection representation. Prescribed climatological October SSTs and variants of the SST distribution from October 2006, a +IOD event, force the model. Modest MJO convection weakening over the Maritime Continent occurs when either climatological SSTs, or +IOD SST anomalies restricted to the Indian Ocean, are applied. However, severe MJOmore » weakening occurs when either +IOD SST anomalies are applied globally or restricted to the equatorial Pacific. MJO disruption is associated with time-mean changes in the zonal wind profile and lower moist static energy (MSE) in subsiding air masses imported from the Subtropics by Rossby-like gyres. On intraseasonal scales, MJO disruption arises from significantly smaller MSE accumulation, weaker meridional advective moistening, and overactive submonthly eddies that mix drier subtropical air into the path of MJO convection. These results (1) demonstrate that SPCAM reproduces observed time-mean and intraseasonal changes during +IOD episodes, (2) reaffirm the role that submonthly eddies play in MJO propagation and show that such multiscale interactions are sensitive to interannual SST states, and (3) suggest that boreal fall +IOD SSTs local to the Indian Ocean have a significantly smaller impact on Maritime Continent MJO propagation compared to contemporaneous Pacific SST anomalies which, for October 2006, resemble El Ninõ-like conditions.« less
  • A hybrid coupled model (HCM) of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system is described. The ocean component is a fully nonlinear ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The atmospheric element is a statistical model that specifies wind stress from ocean-model sea surface temperatures (SST). The coupled model demonstrates a chaotic behavior during extended integration that is related to slow changes in the background mean state of the ocean. The HCM also reproduces many of the observed variations in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system. The physical processes operative in the model together describe a natural mode of climate variability in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmospheremore » system. The mode is composed of (i) westward-propagating Rossby waves and (ii) an equatorially confined air-sea element that propagates eastward. Additional results showed that the seasonal dependence of the anomalous ocean-atmosphere coupling was vital to the model's ability to both replicate and forecast key features of the tropical Pacific climate system. A series of hindcast and forecast experiments was conducted with the model. It showed real skill in forecasting fall/winter tropical Pacific SST at a lead time of up to 18 months. This skill was largely confined to the central equatorial Pacific, just the region that is most prominent in teleconnections with the Northern Hemisphere during winter. This result suggests the model forecasts of winter SSt at leads times of at least 6 months are good enough to be used with atmospheric models (statistical or OGCM) to attempt long-range winter forecasts for the North American continent. This suggestion is confirmed in Part II of this paper. 62 refs., 16 figs., 1 tab.« less
  • Analysis of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone (TC) track data for the month of May during 1980-2013 reveals a meridional dipole in TC intensification: TC intensification rates increased in the northern Bay and decreased in the southern Bay. The dipole was driven by an increase in low-level vorticity and atmospheric humidity in the northern Bay, making the environment more favorable for TC intensification, and enhanced vertical wind shear in the southern Bay, tending to reduce TC development. These environmental changes were associated with a strengthening of the monsoon circulation for the month of May, driven by a La Nin˜a-like shiftmore » in tropical Pacific SSTs andassociated tropical wave dynamics. Analysis of a suite of climate models fromthe CMIP5 archive for the 150-year historical period shows that most models correctly reproduce the link between ENSO and Bay of Bengal TC activity through the monsoon at interannual timescales. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario the same CMIP5 models produce an El Nin˜o like warming trend in the equatorial Pacific, tending to weaken the monsoon circulation. These results suggest« less