Uncertainty quantification of property models: Methodology and its application to CO ₂ ‐loaded aqueous MEA solutions

Journal Article · Mon Mar 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · AIChE Journal

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/aic.14762· OSTI ID:1400444

Morgan, Joshua C. ^[1]; Bhattacharyya, Debangsu ^[1]; Tong, Charles ^[2]; Miller, David C. ^[3]

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1. Dept. of Chemical Engineering West Virginia University Morgantown WV 26505
2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA 94550
3. National Energy Technology Laboratory Pittsburgh PA 15236

Uncertainties in property models can significantly affect the results obtained from process simulations. If these uncertainties are not quantified, optimal plant designs based on such models can be misleading. With this incentive, a systematic, generalized uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology for property models is developed. Starting with prior beliefs about parametric uncertainties, a Bayesian method is used to derive informed posteriors using the experimental data. To reduce the computational expense, surrogate response surface models are developed. For downselecting the parameter space, a sensitivity matrix‐based approach is developed. The methodology is then deployed to the property models for an MEA‐CO ₂ ‐H ₂ O system. The UQ analysis is found to provide interesting information about uncertainties in the parameter space. The sensitivity matrix approach is also found to be a valuable tool for reducing computational expense. Finally, the effect of the estimated parametric uncertainty on CO ₂ absorption and monoethanolamine (MEA) regeneration is analyzed. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J , 61: 1822–1839, 2015

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 1400444
• Journal Information: AIChE Journal, Journal Name: AIChE Journal Vol. 61 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 0001-1541
• Publisher: Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English