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Title: Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

Abstract

Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [5];  [9];  [10];  [2];  [11]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. Underwriters Laboratories
  3. DuPont
  4. European Commission
  5. TUV Rheinland
  6. Swiss RE
  7. PowerMark Corporation
  8. First Solar
  9. National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
  10. China General Certification Center
  11. RTS Corporation
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
OSTI Identifier:
1399079
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-5J00-70163
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Presented at the 2017 European PV Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, 25-29 September 2017, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; PV reliability; accelerated testing; risk assessment; lifetime prediction

Citation Formats

Kurtz, Sarah, Repins, Ingrid L, Hacke, Peter L, Jordan, Dirk, Kempe, Michael D, Whitfield, Kent, Phillips, Nancy, Sample, Tony, Monokroussos, Christos, Hsi, Edward, Wohlgemuth, John, Seidel, Peter, Jahn, Ulrike, Tanahashi, Tadanori, Chen, Yingnan, Jaeckel, Bengt, and Yamamichi, Masaaki. Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint. United States: N. p., 2017. Web.
Kurtz, Sarah, Repins, Ingrid L, Hacke, Peter L, Jordan, Dirk, Kempe, Michael D, Whitfield, Kent, Phillips, Nancy, Sample, Tony, Monokroussos, Christos, Hsi, Edward, Wohlgemuth, John, Seidel, Peter, Jahn, Ulrike, Tanahashi, Tadanori, Chen, Yingnan, Jaeckel, Bengt, & Yamamichi, Masaaki. Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint. United States.
Kurtz, Sarah, Repins, Ingrid L, Hacke, Peter L, Jordan, Dirk, Kempe, Michael D, Whitfield, Kent, Phillips, Nancy, Sample, Tony, Monokroussos, Christos, Hsi, Edward, Wohlgemuth, John, Seidel, Peter, Jahn, Ulrike, Tanahashi, Tadanori, Chen, Yingnan, Jaeckel, Bengt, and Yamamichi, Masaaki. 2017. "Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint". United States. doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1399079.
@article{osti_1399079,
title = {Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint},
author = {Kurtz, Sarah and Repins, Ingrid L and Hacke, Peter L and Jordan, Dirk and Kempe, Michael D and Whitfield, Kent and Phillips, Nancy and Sample, Tony and Monokroussos, Christos and Hsi, Edward and Wohlgemuth, John and Seidel, Peter and Jahn, Ulrike and Tanahashi, Tadanori and Chen, Yingnan and Jaeckel, Bengt and Yamamichi, Masaaki},
abstractNote = {Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month =
}

Conference:
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