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Title: 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

Abstract

The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1398756
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-68548
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; standard scenarios; annual technology baseline; capacity expansion; projection; natural gas; renewable energy; nuclear; retirements; electricity; photovoltaics; wind; battery storage

Citation Formats

Cole, Wesley J., Mai, Trieu T., Richards, James, Das, Paritosh, and Donohoo-Vallett, Paul. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1398756.
Cole, Wesley J., Mai, Trieu T., Richards, James, Das, Paritosh, & Donohoo-Vallett, Paul. 2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook. United States. doi:10.2172/1398756.
Cole, Wesley J., Mai, Trieu T., Richards, James, Das, Paritosh, and Donohoo-Vallett, Paul. 2017. "2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook". United States. doi:10.2172/1398756. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1398756.
@article{osti_1398756,
title = {2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook},
author = {Cole, Wesley J. and Mai, Trieu T. and Richards, James and Das, Paritosh and Donohoo-Vallett, Paul},
abstractNote = {The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.},
doi = {10.2172/1398756},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month =
}

Technical Report:

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  • This report summarizes the results of 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios” of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their third year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.
  • The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the futuremore » direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.« less
  • The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.
  • Webinar slide deck for the 2017 Standard Scenarios Report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/68548.pdf).
  • This is the webinar presentation deck used to present the 2016 Standard Scenarios work. It discusses the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) detailed cost and performance projections for electricity-generating technologies and the standard scenarios of the power sector modeling using ATB inputs.