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Title: Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1396923
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Policy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 107; Journal Issue: C; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2017-10-04 15:47:52; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Wei, Max, Smith, Sarah Josephine, and Sohn, Michael D. Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs. United Kingdom: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.035.
Wei, Max, Smith, Sarah Josephine, & Sohn, Michael D. Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs. United Kingdom. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.035.
Wei, Max, Smith, Sarah Josephine, and Sohn, Michael D. 2017. "Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs". United Kingdom. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.035.
@article{osti_1396923,
title = {Non-constant learning rates in retrospective experience curve analyses and their correlation to deployment programs},
author = {Wei, Max and Smith, Sarah Josephine and Sohn, Michael D.},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2017.04.035},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = C,
volume = 107,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = 2017,
month = 8
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
This content will become publicly available on May 9, 2018
Publisher's Accepted Manuscript

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  • A key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters is to estimate future technology costs and in particular the rate of cost reduction versus production volume. A related, critical question is what role should state and federal governments have in advancing energy efficient and renewable energy technologies? This work provides retrospective experience curves and learning rates for several energy-related technologies, each of which have a known history of federal and state deployment programs. We derive learning rates for eight technologies including energy efficient lighting technologies, stationary fuel cell systems, and residential solar photovoltaics, and provide an overview and timeline ofmore » historical deployment programs such as state and federal standards and state and national incentive programs for each technology. Piecewise linear regimes are observed in a range of technology experience curves, and public investments or deployment programs are found to be strongly correlated to an increase in learning rate across multiple technologies. A downward bend in the experience curve is found in 5 out of the 8 energy-related technologies presented here (electronic ballasts, magnetic ballasts, compact fluorescent lighting, general service fluorescent lighting, and the installed cost of solar PV). In each of the five downward-bending experience curves, we believe that an increase in the learning rate can be linked to deployment programs to some degree. This work sheds light on the endogenous versus exogenous contributions to technological innovation and highlights the impact of exogenous government sponsored deployment programs. This work can inform future policy investment direction and can shed light on market transformation and technology learning behavior.« less
  • Retrospective experience curves are a useful tool for understanding historic technology development, and can contribute to investment program analysis and future cost estimation efforts. This work documents our development of an analysis approach for deriving retrospective experience curves with a variable learning rate, and its application to develop an experience curve for compact fluorescent lamps for the global and North American markets over the years 1990-2007. Uncertainties and assumptions involved in interpreting data for our experience curve development are discussed, including the processing and transformation of empirical data, the selection of system boundaries, and the identification of historical changes inmore » the learning rate over the course of 15 years. In the results that follow, we find that that the learning rate has changed at least once from 1990-2007. We also explore if, and to what degree, public deployment programs may have contributed to an increased technology learning rate in North America. We observe correlations between the changes in the learning rate and the initiation of new policies, abrupt technological advances, including improvements to ballast technology, and economic and political events such as trade tariffs and electricity prices. Finally, we discuss how the findings of this work (1) support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective analysis and (2) may imply that investments in technological research and development have contributed to a change in market adoption and penetration.« less
  • Experience curves are useful for understanding technology development and can aid in the design and analysis of market transformation programs. Here, we employ a novel approach to create experience curves, to examine both global and North American compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) data for the years 1990–2007. We move away from the prevailing method of fitting a single, constant, exponential curve to data and instead search for break points where changes in the learning rate may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a learning rate of approximately 21% for the period of 1990–1997, and 51% and 79% in global and North Americanmore » datasets, respectively, after 1998. We use price data for this analysis; therefore our learning rates encompass developments beyond typical “learning by doing”, including supply chain impacts such as market competition. We examine correlations between North American learning rates and the initiation of new programs, abrupt technological advances, and economic and political events, and find an increased learning rate associated with design advancements and federal standards programs. Our findings support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective technology analysis, and may imply that investments in technology programs have contributed to an increase of the CFL learning rate.« less
  • Experience curves are useful for understanding technology development and can aid in the design and analysis of market transformation programs. Here, we employ a novel approach to create experience curves, to examine both global and North American compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) data for the years 1990–2007. We move away from the prevailing method of fitting a single, constant, exponential curve to data and instead search for break points where changes in the learning rate may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a learning rate of approximately 21% for the period of 1990–1997, and 51% and 79% in global and North Americanmore » datasets, respectively, after 1998. We use price data for this analysis; therefore our learning rates encompass developments beyond typical “learning by doing”, including supply chain impacts such as market competition. We examine correlations between North American learning rates and the initiation of new programs, abrupt technological advances, and economic and political events, and find an increased learning rate associated with design advancements and federal standards programs. Our findings support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective technology analysis, and may imply that investments in technology programs have contributed to an increase of the CFL learning rate.« less
  • Ozone formation rates obtained in smog chamber experiments for the C/sub 3/H/sub 6/-NO/sub x/-dry air system were analyzed with the aid of computer simulation using a detailed reaction model. In the region of (C/sub 3/H/sub 6/)/sub 0//(NO/sub x/)/sub 0/ greater than or equal to 5, the ozone formation rate was found to be approximately proportional to the product of the OH-radical concentration and the initial concentration of C/sub 3/H/sub 6/ in the earlier stage of photooxidation until d(O/sub 3/)/dt reaches a maximum. The proportionality constant was defined as an effective ozone formation rate constant and is proposed to be amore » useful parameter to represent photochemical reactivity of hydrocarbon mixtures on the basis of ozone formation rate. The effective ozone formation rate constant for C/sub 3/H/sub 6/ in the dry air-NO/sub x/ mixture was determined to be (6.2 +/- 1.1) x 10/sup 4/ ppm/sup -1/ min/sup -1/.« less