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Title: Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1396797
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Energy Policy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 97; Journal Issue: C; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2017-10-04 15:46:16; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

Citation Formats

McNeil, Michael A., Feng, Wei, de la Rue du Can, Stephane, Khanna, Nina Zheng, Ke, Jing, and Zhou, Nan. Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030. United Kingdom: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.033.
McNeil, Michael A., Feng, Wei, de la Rue du Can, Stephane, Khanna, Nina Zheng, Ke, Jing, & Zhou, Nan. Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030. United Kingdom. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.033.
McNeil, Michael A., Feng, Wei, de la Rue du Can, Stephane, Khanna, Nina Zheng, Ke, Jing, and Zhou, Nan. 2016. "Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030". United Kingdom. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.033.
@article{osti_1396797,
title = {Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030},
author = {McNeil, Michael A. and Feng, Wei and de la Rue du Can, Stephane and Khanna, Nina Zheng and Ke, Jing and Zhou, Nan},
abstractNote = {},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.033},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = C,
volume = 97,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = 2016,
month =
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.033

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  • The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China’s final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturationmore » of China’s per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.« less
  • As one of the most energy-, emission- and pollution-intensive industries, iron and steel production is responsible for significant emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutants. Although many energy-efficiency measures have been proposed by the Chinese government to mitigate GHG emissions and to improve air quality, lacking full understanding of the costs and benefits has created barriers against implementing these measures widely. This paper sets out to advance the understanding by addressing the knowledge gap in costs, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of energy-efficiency measures in iron and steel production. Specifically, we build a new evaluation framework to quantify energy benefits andmore » environmental benefits (i.e., CO 2 emission reduction, air-pollutants emission reduction and water savings) associated with 36 energy-efficiency measures. Results show that inclusion of benefits from CO 2 and air-pollutants emission reduction affects the cost-effectiveness of energy-efficiency measures significantly, while impacts from water-savings benefits are moderate but notable when compared to the effects by considering energy benefits alone. The new information resulted from this study should be used to augment future programs and efforts in reducing energy use and environmental impacts associated with steel production.« less
  • Several recent studies have shown the realistic potential to reduce utility customers` energy use dramatically. One such effort projects reductions of thirty to fifty-five percent compared to a reference case (which already incorporates some efficiency improvements). These correspond to absolute reductions of about fifteen to twenty percent compared to current usage, even with projected growth of GDP by a factor of 2.4. Such a scenario covering all sectors of the economy can provide a seventy percent absolute reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions over the next forty years, at a net economic benefit of $2.3x10{sup 12}. In the past, themore » bulk of utility-sector energy savings have been obtained through state and federal efficiency standards for buildings, appliances, and other equipment. In recent years, the rapid growth of utility-run incentive programs allows the prediction that they will account for an increasing share of the savings. Incentives can promote increased efficiency among utility customers, and can interact synergistically with present and future standards. Retulation of utilities themselves can encourage or undermine such programs. Finally, the problem of promoting research, development, and commercialization of new energy efficiency technologies is described in the context of changing incentives at the utility customer level. Emerging mechanisms and institutions may be able to address this problem, resulting in more effective and less costly options for energy efficiency.« less