skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Journal Article · · Journal of Climate
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [4];  [1]
  1. Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI (United States)
  2. Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States)
  3. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
  4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Parameter estimation provides a potentially powerful approach to reduce model bias for complex climate models. Here, in a twin experiment framework, the authors perform the first parameter estimation in a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model using an ensemble coupled data assimilation system facilitated with parameter estimation. The authors first perform single-parameter estimation and then multiple-parameter estimation. In the case of the single-parameter estimation, the error of the parameter [solar penetration depth (SPD)] is reduced by over 90% after ~40 years of assimilation of the conventional observations of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS). The results of multiple-parameter estimation are less reliable than those of single-parameter estimation when only the monthly SST and SSS are assimilated. Assimilating additional observations of atmospheric data of temperature and wind improves the reliability of multiple-parameter estimation. The errors of the parameters are reduced by 90% in ~8 years of assimilation. Finally, the improved parameters also improve the model climatology. With the optimized parameters, the bias of the climatology of SST is reduced by ~90%. Altogether, this study suggests the feasibility of ensemble-based parameter estimation in a fully coupled general circulation model.

Research Organization:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Science Foundation (NSF), Directorate for Geosciences Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (GEO/OAD); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
OSTI ID:
1396288
Journal Information:
Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 18; ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 22 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (34)

Ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation with MM5 journal January 2006
Ensemble-Based Simultaneous State and Parameter Estimation in a Two-Dimensional Sea-Breeze Model journal October 2006
Impact of ocean color on the maintenance of the Pacific Cold Tongue journal January 2007
Efficient parameter estimation for a highly chaotic system journal October 2004
Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter journal January 2005
Parameter estimation in an atmospheric GCM using the Ensemble Kalman Filter journal January 2005
Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response to Seasonal Modulation of Ocean Color: Impact on Interannual Climate Simulations in the Tropical Pacific journal January 2007
Control and Estimation in Distributed Parameter Systems book January 1992
Computational issues in parameter estimation and feedback control problems for partial differential equation systems journal November 1992
An assessment of oceanic variability for 1960–2010 from the GFDL ensemble coupled data assimilation journal June 2012
A simple analytical formula to compute clear sky total and photosynthetically available solar irradiance at the ocean surface journal January 1989
Construction of correlation functions in two and three dimensions journal January 1999
Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Fixed Screen-Height Observations in a Parameterized PBL journal November 2005
The Double-ITCZ Problem in IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Ocean–Atmosphere Feedback Analysis journal September 2007
Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method* journal May 2014
Modeling climate shift of El Nino variability in the Holocene journal August 2000
Simulating the transient evolution and abrupt change of Northern Africa atmosphere–ocean–terrestrial ecosystem in the Holocene journal July 2007
Seasonal and Long-Term Atmospheric Responses to Reemerging North Pacific Ocean Variability: A Combined Dynamical and Statistical Assessment* journal March 2007
Ensemble data assimilation in a simple coupled climate model: The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction journal August 2013
Response of the equatorial Pacific to chlorophyll pigment in a mixed layer isopycnal ocean general circulation model journal May 2001
Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling journal January 2007
Sensitivity of the Simulated Annual Cycle of Sea Surface Temperature in the Equatorial Pacific to Sunlight Penetration journal August 1998
The bio-optical state of ocean waters and remote sensing 1: Remote sensing journal March 1978
Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State with Simulated Radar Data and Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter. Part I: Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Identifiability journal May 2008
Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State with Simulated Radar Data and Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter. Part II: Parameter Estimation Experiments journal May 2008
Impact of Geographic-Dependent Parameter Optimization on Climate Estimation and Prediction: Simulation with an Intermediate Coupled Model journal December 2012
A study of impact of the geographic dependence of observing system on parameter estimation with an intermediate coupled model journal May 2012
A Predictable AMO-Like Pattern in the GFDL Fully Coupled Ensemble Initialization and Decadal Forecasting System journal January 2013
Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions: Simulation with a simple pycnocline prediction model: IMPACT OF OBSERVATION-OPTIMIZED PARAMETERS ON DECADAL PREDICTIONS journal January 2011
A Study of Impacts of Coupled Model Initial Shocks and State–Parameter Optimization on Climate Predictions Using a Simple Pycnocline Prediction Model journal December 2011
System Design and Evaluation of Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation for Global Oceanic Climate Studies journal October 2007
A study of enhancive parameter correction with coupled data assimilation for climate estimation and prediction using a simple coupled model journal January 2012
Balanced and Coherent Climate Estimation by Combining Data with a Biased Coupled Model journal January 2014
An Optimal Nudging Data Assimilation Scheme Using Parameter Estimation journal October 1992

Cited By (4)

Idealized Experiments for Optimizing Model Parameters Using a 4D-Variational Method in an Intermediate Coupled Model of ENSO journal February 2018
Estimating surface carbon fluxes based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter with a short assimilation window and a long observation window: an observing system simulation experiment test in GEOS-Chem 10.1 journal January 2019
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation journal January 2019
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation text January 2019

Similar Records

Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections
Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2010 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:1396288
The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2
Journal Article · Tue Apr 16 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online) · OSTI ID:1396288
+3 more
Final report on "Carbon Data Assimilation with a Coupled Ensemble Kalman Filter"
Technical Report · Wed Jul 23 00:00:00 EDT 2014 · OSTI ID:1396288

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Climate models
Data assimilation
Optimization
Parameterization