skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

Abstract

Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transportmore » accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1395969
Report Number(s):
SRNL-STI-2017-00631
TRN: US1800072
DOE Contract Number:  
AC09-08SR22470
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; SIMULATION; CONCENTRATION RATIO; COMPLEX TERRAIN; ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION; METEOROLOGY

Citation Formats

Buckley, R., Chiswell, S., Kurzeja, R., Maze, G., Viner, B., and Werth, D. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1395969.
Buckley, R., Chiswell, S., Kurzeja, R., Maze, G., Viner, B., & Werth, D. Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques. United States. doi:10.2172/1395969.
Buckley, R., Chiswell, S., Kurzeja, R., Maze, G., Viner, B., and Werth, D. Fri . "Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques". United States. doi:10.2172/1395969. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1395969.
@article{osti_1395969,
title = {Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques},
author = {Buckley, R. and Chiswell, S. and Kurzeja, R. and Maze, G. and Viner, B. and Werth, D.},
abstractNote = {Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.},
doi = {10.2172/1395969},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Fri Sep 29 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Technical Report:

Save / Share: