Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06765-0

Title: Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

Journal Article · Mon Jul 24 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Scientific Reports

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06765-0· OSTI ID:1395482

Mehran, Ali ^[1]; AghaKouchak, Amir ^[1];

^[1]; Stewardson, Michael J. ^[2];

^[2]; Phillips, Thomas J. ^[3];

^[4]; Ravalico, Jakin K. ^[5]

Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Univ. of Melbourne (Australia). Department of Infrastructure Engineering
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Center for Climate Systems Research; Utrecht University (The Netherlands). Department of Physical Geography; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
Melbourne Water, Docklands, Victoria (Australia)

The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1395482

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 74 works

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