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Title: Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric

Abstract

Land models require evaluation in order to understand results and guide future development. Examining functional relationships between model variables can provide insight into the ability of models to capture fundamental processes and aid in minimizing uncertainties or deficiencies in model forcing. This study quantifies the proficiency of land models to appropriately transfer heat from the soil through a snowpack to the atmosphere during the cooling season (Northern Hemisphere: October–March). Using the basic physics of heat diffusion, we investigate the relationship between seasonal amplitudes of soil versus air temperatures due to insulation from seasonal snow. Observations demonstrate the anticipated exponential relationship of attenuated soil temperature amplitude with increasing snow depth and indicate that the marginal influence of snow insulation diminishes beyond an effective snow depth of about 50 cm. A snow and heat transfer metric (SHTM) is developed to quantify model skill compared to observations. Land models within the CMIP5 experiment vary widely in SHTM scores, and deficiencies can often be traced to model structural weaknesses. The SHTM value for individual models is stable over 150 years of climate, 1850–2005, indicating that the metric is insensitive to climate forcing and can be used to evaluate each model's representation of the insulationmore » process.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1393225
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; FC03-97ER62402/A010
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
The Cryosphere (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online); Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1994-0424
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Slater, Andrew G., Lawrence, David M., and Koven, Charles D. Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.5194/tc-11-989-2017.
Slater, Andrew G., Lawrence, David M., & Koven, Charles D. Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric. United States. doi:10.5194/tc-11-989-2017.
Slater, Andrew G., Lawrence, David M., and Koven, Charles D. Thu . "Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric". United States. doi:10.5194/tc-11-989-2017. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1393225.
@article{osti_1393225,
title = {Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric},
author = {Slater, Andrew G. and Lawrence, David M. and Koven, Charles D.},
abstractNote = {Land models require evaluation in order to understand results and guide future development. Examining functional relationships between model variables can provide insight into the ability of models to capture fundamental processes and aid in minimizing uncertainties or deficiencies in model forcing. This study quantifies the proficiency of land models to appropriately transfer heat from the soil through a snowpack to the atmosphere during the cooling season (Northern Hemisphere: October–March). Using the basic physics of heat diffusion, we investigate the relationship between seasonal amplitudes of soil versus air temperatures due to insulation from seasonal snow. Observations demonstrate the anticipated exponential relationship of attenuated soil temperature amplitude with increasing snow depth and indicate that the marginal influence of snow insulation diminishes beyond an effective snow depth of about 50 cm. A snow and heat transfer metric (SHTM) is developed to quantify model skill compared to observations. Land models within the CMIP5 experiment vary widely in SHTM scores, and deficiencies can often be traced to model structural weaknesses. The SHTM value for individual models is stable over 150 years of climate, 1850–2005, indicating that the metric is insensitive to climate forcing and can be used to evaluate each model's representation of the insulation process.},
doi = {10.5194/tc-11-989-2017},
journal = {The Cryosphere (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 20 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Thu Apr 20 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

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