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Title: GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation.


Abstract not provided.

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
Report Number(s):
DOE Contract Number:
Resource Type:
Resource Relation:
Conference: Proposed for presentation at the IMUG held September 15-16, 2016 in Washington, DC.
Country of Publication:
United States

Citation Formats

Outkin, Alexander V., and Bixler, Nathan E. GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation.. United States: N. p., 2016. Web.
Outkin, Alexander V., & Bixler, Nathan E. GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation.. United States.
Outkin, Alexander V., and Bixler, Nathan E. Thu . "GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation.". United States. doi:.
title = {GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation.},
author = {Outkin, Alexander V. and Bixler, Nathan E.},
abstractNote = {Abstract not provided.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016}

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  • An exploratory sensitivity study with the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) is presented. This study was performed to provide (1) an indication of the possible impact of consequence modeling uncertainties on the results of an integrated probabilistic risk assessment for a nuclear power station, (2) guidance on important parameters to direct data acquisition for future uncertainty analyses with MACCS, (3) a check that MACCS is indeed operating as intended, and (4) insights on the effect of problem gridding on model resolution. The following consequence measures were investigated: early fatalities, prodromal vomiting, lung impairment, population dose (0 to 500 mi),more » population dose (0 to 10 mi), mean early fatality distance, maximum early fatality distance, mean early fatality risk, probability of one or more early fatalities, and amount of central processing unit (CPU) time required to evaluate MACCS. The analysis used techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression analysis. 106 refs., 21 tabs.« less
  • Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domesticmore » product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.« less
  • The task described in this paper was performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The chronic exposure pathway models implemented in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) were compared to post-Chernobyl data from various sources, though mainly from Norway, for verification or identification of areas for possible improvement. The reason for choosing data from Norway for this purpose is partly that Chernobyl fallout levels in Norway are higher than in any other country in western Europe and partly that Norway has been deeply involved in many different types of experiments examining the behavior of radioactive materials in the environmentmore » since the early 1960s.« less
  • Sandia National Laboratories has been involved in the performance of risk assessments for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for more than a decade. As part of this effort, Sandia developed the reactor consequence analysis codes, CRAC2, and more recently, MACCS. CRAC2 is an improved version of CRAC, which was used in the Reactor Safety Study (also known as WASH-1400). MACCS was used in recent risk assessments for five nuclear power plants (NUREG-1150). MACCS incorporates many model improvements over CRAC2. Some of these improvements are discussed. A comparison of results obtained with CRAC2 and MACCS is also presented. 19 refs., 3more » tabs.« less
  • Currently, the usefulness of reactor accident consequence assessments for providing guidance for planning and decision making is limited by the poor definition of uncertainties in predicted results. The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System has been structured to facilitate performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. MACCS incorporates improved modeling capabilities in the treatment of variable or long duration releases, deposition modeling, dosimetry, emergency response, radiological health effects, and economic effects. At this writing (March 1985), the new code system has been completed and is undergoing testing, de-bugging, etc. Release of the first version of the full MELCOR code system, with associated documentation,more » is anticipated for the Autumn of 1985.« less