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Title: SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future

Abstract

In this report we summarize the implications, impacts, and deployment potential of reaching the SunShot 2030 targets for the electricity system in the contiguous United States. We model 25 scenarios of the U.S. power sector using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The scenarios cover a wide range of sensitivities to capture future uncertainties relating to fuel prices, retirements, renewable energy capital costs, and load growth. We give special attention to the potential for storage costs to also rapidly decline due to its large synergies with low-cost solar. The ReEDS and dGen models project utility- and distributed-scale power sector evolution, respectively, for the United States. Both models have been designed with special emphasis on capturing the unique traits of renewable energy, including variability and grid integration requirements. Across the suite of scenarios modeled, we find that reaching the SunShot 2030 target has the potential to lead to significant capacity additions of PV in the United States. By 2050, PV penetration levels are projected to reach 28-46 percent of total generation. If storage also sees significant reductions in cost, then the 2050 solar penetration levels could reach 41-64 percent. PV deployment is projected tomore » occur in all of the lower 48 states, though the specific deployment level is scenario dependent. The growth in PV is projected to be dominated by utility-scale systems, but the actual mix between utility and distributed systems could ultimately vary depending on how policies, system costs, and rate structures evolve.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)
OSTI Identifier:
1392206
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-68105
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
14 SOLAR ENERGY; solar PV; SunShot; ReEDS; capacity expansion; photovoltaics; projection; electricity sector; battery storage

Citation Formats

Cole, Wesley J., Frew, Bethany A., Gagnon, Pieter J., Richards, James, Sun, Yinong, Margolis, Robert M., and Woodhouse, Michael A. SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1392206.
Cole, Wesley J., Frew, Bethany A., Gagnon, Pieter J., Richards, James, Sun, Yinong, Margolis, Robert M., & Woodhouse, Michael A. SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future. United States. doi:10.2172/1392206.
Cole, Wesley J., Frew, Bethany A., Gagnon, Pieter J., Richards, James, Sun, Yinong, Margolis, Robert M., and Woodhouse, Michael A. Tue . "SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future". United States. doi:10.2172/1392206. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1392206.
@article{osti_1392206,
title = {SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future},
author = {Cole, Wesley J. and Frew, Bethany A. and Gagnon, Pieter J. and Richards, James and Sun, Yinong and Margolis, Robert M. and Woodhouse, Michael A.},
abstractNote = {In this report we summarize the implications, impacts, and deployment potential of reaching the SunShot 2030 targets for the electricity system in the contiguous United States. We model 25 scenarios of the U.S. power sector using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The scenarios cover a wide range of sensitivities to capture future uncertainties relating to fuel prices, retirements, renewable energy capital costs, and load growth. We give special attention to the potential for storage costs to also rapidly decline due to its large synergies with low-cost solar. The ReEDS and dGen models project utility- and distributed-scale power sector evolution, respectively, for the United States. Both models have been designed with special emphasis on capturing the unique traits of renewable energy, including variability and grid integration requirements. Across the suite of scenarios modeled, we find that reaching the SunShot 2030 target has the potential to lead to significant capacity additions of PV in the United States. By 2050, PV penetration levels are projected to reach 28-46 percent of total generation. If storage also sees significant reductions in cost, then the 2050 solar penetration levels could reach 41-64 percent. PV deployment is projected to occur in all of the lower 48 states, though the specific deployment level is scenario dependent. The growth in PV is projected to be dominated by utility-scale systems, but the actual mix between utility and distributed systems could ultimately vary depending on how policies, system costs, and rate structures evolve.},
doi = {10.2172/1392206},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Sep 12 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Tue Sep 12 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

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