Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Baldini, Lisa M.; Baldini, James U. L.; McElwaine, Jim N.; Frappier, Amy Benoit; Asmerom, Yemane; Liu, Kam-biu; Prufer, Keith M.; Ridley, Harriet E.; Polyak, Victor; Kennett, Douglas J.; Macpherson, Colin G.; Aquino, Valorie V.; Awe, Jaime; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

doi:10.1038/srep37522

Title: Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

Journal Article · Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Scientific Reports

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/srep37522· OSTI ID:1389638

Baldini, Lisa M. ^[1]; Baldini, James U. L. ^[1]; McElwaine, Jim N. ^[1]; Frappier, Amy Benoit ^[2]; Asmerom, Yemane ^[3]; Liu, Kam-biu ^[4]; Prufer, Keith M. ^[3]; Ridley, Harriet E. ^[1]; Polyak, Victor ^[3]; Kennett, Douglas J. ^[5]; Macpherson, Colin G. ^[1]; Aquino, Valorie V. ^[3]; Awe, Jaime ^[6]; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. ^[7]

Durham Univ., Durham (United Kingdom)
Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, NY (United States)
Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States)
Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
Institute of Archaeology, Belmopan (Belize); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Ruhr-Univ. Bochum, Bochum (Germany)

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Pennsylvania State univ., University Park, PA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI ID:: 1389638

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 44 works

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