Gas supply perspectives: How ultimate is ultimate gas recovery?
- Gas Research Institute, Washington, DC (United States)
Projections of long-term trends in gas prices, particularly since the 1970s, have been generally based on the concept of ultimate gas recovery (i.e., gas is a depletable resource). Under this theory, gas prices rise steadily as the resource is depleted. As a result, projections of long-term gas supply are accompanied by steadily increasing prices, with limited prospects for stable or increased supply. Estimates of ultimate gas recovery in the lower-48 states, however, reflect industry perceptions at the the time the estimates were made. And these perceptions are dynamic, not static. As industry activity continues, the scope of the resource expands, in large part because of new technology. New areas are found to be productive that were not in industry perceptions of the resource before. New, less conventional resources are added, and the capability of the industry to recover gas from known fields and active plays increases. As a result, subsequent estimates of ultimate gas recovery can increase over time, much as cumulative discoveries increase over time. Therefore, projections of the long-term trends in gas prices and supply based on ultimate resource recovery will tend to overstate the upward pressures on gas prices and the downward pressures on gas supply.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC), WV (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 138825
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/METC-92-6125; CONF-920584-; ON: DE92001278; TRN: 93:000764-001
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: US Department of Energy contractor review meeting on natural gas research and development, Morgantown, WV (United States), 5-6 May 1992; Other Information: PBD: May 1992; Related Information: Is Part Of Proceedings of the natural gas research and development contractors review meeting; Malone, R.D.; Shoemaker, H.D.; Byrer, C.W. [eds.]; PB: 408 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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