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Title: Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and large ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
  2. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing (China)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  4. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
  5. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1379852
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Ma, Shuangmei, Zhou, Tianjun, Stone, Dáithí A., Angélil, Oliver, and Shiogama, Hideo. Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d2.
Ma, Shuangmei, Zhou, Tianjun, Stone, Dáithí A., Angélil, Oliver, & Shiogama, Hideo. Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d2.
Ma, Shuangmei, Zhou, Tianjun, Stone, Dáithí A., Angélil, Oliver, and Shiogama, Hideo. Fri . "Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d2. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1379852.
@article{osti_1379852,
title = {Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions},
author = {Ma, Shuangmei and Zhou, Tianjun and Stone, Dáithí A. and Angélil, Oliver and Shiogama, Hideo},
abstractNote = {In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and large ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa69d2},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 5,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri May 19 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Fri May 19 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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Cited by: 4 works
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