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Title: Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

Abstract

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most activemore » or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [1]
  1. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  2. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)
  4. USDA Forest Service, New Lisbon, NJ (United States)
  5. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
  6. USDA Forest Service, Durham, NH (United States)
  7. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  8. Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1379577
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 121; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; interannual variability; eddy covariance; ecosystem fluxes; short time scales

Citation Formats

Zscheischler, Jakob, Fatichi, Simone, Wolf, Sebastian, Blanken, Peter D., Bohrer, Gil, Clark, Kenneth, Desai, Ankur R., Hollinger, David, Keenan, Trevor, Novick, Kimberly A., and Seneviratne, Sonia I. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016JG003503.
Zscheischler, Jakob, Fatichi, Simone, Wolf, Sebastian, Blanken, Peter D., Bohrer, Gil, Clark, Kenneth, Desai, Ankur R., Hollinger, David, Keenan, Trevor, Novick, Kimberly A., & Seneviratne, Sonia I. Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes. United States. doi:10.1002/2016JG003503.
Zscheischler, Jakob, Fatichi, Simone, Wolf, Sebastian, Blanken, Peter D., Bohrer, Gil, Clark, Kenneth, Desai, Ankur R., Hollinger, David, Keenan, Trevor, Novick, Kimberly A., and Seneviratne, Sonia I. Mon . "Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes". United States. doi:10.1002/2016JG003503. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1379577.
@article{osti_1379577,
title = {Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes},
author = {Zscheischler, Jakob and Fatichi, Simone and Wolf, Sebastian and Blanken, Peter D. and Bohrer, Gil and Clark, Kenneth and Desai, Ankur R. and Hollinger, David and Keenan, Trevor and Novick, Kimberly A. and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
abstractNote = {Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their explanatory power is limited and uncertainties remain as to their relative contributions. Recent results show that the annual count of hours where evapotranspiration (ET) is larger than its 95th percentile is strongly correlated with the annual variability of ET and gross primary production (GPP) in an ecosystem model. This suggests that the occurrence of favorable conditions has a strong influence on the annual carbon budget. Here we analyzed data from eight forest sites of the AmeriFlux network with at least 7 years of continuous measurements. We show that for ET and the carbon fluxes GPP, ecosystem respiration (RE), and net ecosystem production, counting the “most active hours/days” (i.e., hours/days when the flux exceeds a high percentile) correlates well with the respective annual sums, with correlation coefficients generally larger than 0.8. Phenological transitions have much weaker explanatory power. By exploiting the relationship between most active hours and interannual variability, we classify hours as most active or less active and largely explain interannual variability in ecosystem fluxes, particularly for GPP and RE. Our results suggest that a better understanding and modeling of the occurrence of large values in high-frequency ecosystem fluxes will result in a better understanding of interannual variability of these fluxes.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JG003503},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 8,
volume = 121,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Aug 08 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Mon Aug 08 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

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Works referenced in this record:

Random Forests
journal, January 2001