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Title: The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

Abstract

This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost ofmore » climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1379436
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-121411
Journal ID: ISSN 1876-6102; AA9020100
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Energy Procedia; Journal Volume: 114; Journal Issue: C
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Citation Formats

Davidson, Casie L., Dahowski, Robert T., McJeon, Haewon C., Clarke, Leon E., Iyer, Gokul C., and Muratori, Matteo. The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1885.
Davidson, Casie L., Dahowski, Robert T., McJeon, Haewon C., Clarke, Leon E., Iyer, Gokul C., & Muratori, Matteo. The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond. United States. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1885.
Davidson, Casie L., Dahowski, Robert T., McJeon, Haewon C., Clarke, Leon E., Iyer, Gokul C., and Muratori, Matteo. Sat . "The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond". United States. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1885.
@article{osti_1379436,
title = {The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond},
author = {Davidson, Casie L. and Dahowski, Robert T. and McJeon, Haewon C. and Clarke, Leon E. and Iyer, Gokul C. and Muratori, Matteo},
abstractNote = {This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.},
doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1885},
journal = {Energy Procedia},
number = C,
volume = 114,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Sat Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}