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Title: Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia

Abstract

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
OSTI Identifier:
1378082
Report Number(s):
NREL/TP-6A20-68955
DOE Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; typical meteorological year; solar irradiance data; exceedance probability; variability; climate cycles

Citation Formats

Lopez, Anthony, Maclaurin, Galen, Roberts, Billy, and Rosenlieb, Evan. Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1378082.
Lopez, Anthony, Maclaurin, Galen, Roberts, Billy, & Rosenlieb, Evan. Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia. United States. doi:10.2172/1378082.
Lopez, Anthony, Maclaurin, Galen, Roberts, Billy, and Rosenlieb, Evan. Fri . "Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia". United States. doi:10.2172/1378082. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1378082.
@article{osti_1378082,
title = {Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia},
author = {Lopez, Anthony and Maclaurin, Galen and Roberts, Billy and Rosenlieb, Evan},
abstractNote = {Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.},
doi = {10.2172/1378082},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Aug 25 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Fri Aug 25 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Technical Report:

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